US Inflation Fell 0.4% in June, Beating Forecasts; Annual Rate Eases to 3.5%

US consumer prices fell a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in June from the prior month, the biggest monthly decline in more than six years, driven mainly by a sharp drop in energy and gasoline prices. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the data on Tuesday, July 14. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected a 0.2% decline.

The annual inflation rate eased to 3.5% from 4.2% in May, below the market's 3.8% forecast. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) was flat in June, putting its 12-month rate at 2.6%, versus expectations of a 0.2% monthly rise and a 2.9% annual rate.

After the release, markets cut the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the July meeting to about 17%, down from roughly 42% on Monday, though traders still price about a 60% chance of a hike at the September meeting. The path of US rates and the global dollar feed through to gold and dollar prices in Iran's market.