IEA and Barclays data point to cumulative oil supply losses above 1.4 billion barrels

Mehr News Agency reported on Wednesday 7 Mordad 1405 (29 July 2026), citing reports from the International Energy Agency, Barclays and the International Monetary Fund, that the gap between the paper and physical oil markets has widened: while futures have drifted lower on ceasefire negotiation headlines, physical market data shows signs of a severe supply shortfall.

According to the figures in the report, roughly 20 million barrels a day of oil, close to 20 percent of global supply, passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict began. Global supply fell by about 10 million barrels a day in March, and Barclays regards a decline of 13 to 14 million barrels a day as the most likely scenario if the strait remains closed. The International Energy Agency has said cumulative supply losses among Persian Gulf producers passed 1 billion barrels by mid Ordibehesht 1405 (early May 2026).

Adding the disruption to Russian exports in the Black Sea and the Baltic, preliminary estimates point to 1.4 to 1.5 billion barrels of oil that would normally have reached the market but never entered distribution. Some cargoes have been rerouted through alternatives such as Yanbu and Fujairah, but the report says these diversions have largely been redistribution and have not made up the shortfall.