Persian Gulf Oil Output Still About 10 Million Barrels Below Pre War Levels

According to Bourse News, in a report published Wednesday, August 12, 2026 (21 Mordad 1405), data from the US Energy Information Administration's STEO chart and analysis by Labyrinth Consulting Services show that liquid fuel output from Persian Gulf producers (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait and the UAE), which stood at about 25.9 million barrels a day before the war intensified, fell at one point to about 13.9 million barrels a day and has since recovered to roughly 16.1 million barrels a day in the latest data point, still about 10 million barrels a day below the pre war level.

The analysis said a quick return of regional oil field output to prewar levels is unlikely even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens by late 2026, given infrastructure damage and operational disruption, and could take well into 2027. The finding suggests global oil market risk is not limited to how much crude can transit Hormuz, since the drop in upstream production could keep a supply shortfall in place even after tensions ease.