IEA: Global Oil Market Deficit to Widen to 1.8 Million Bpd in Third Quarter of 2026

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday, August 12, 2026 (21 Mordad 1405) that as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz deepens, global oil demand will fall by about 1.6 million barrels a day in 2026, 510,000 barrels a day more than its July estimate. According to CNBC, the agency said "renewed hostilities and maritime disruptions" have undermined efforts to boost global oil supply, which remained 6.3 million barrels a day lower year on year in July. Global observed oil inventories fell below 7.9 billion barrels in July for the first time since April 2025. Per Yahoo Finance and Reuters, the agency now estimates the global oil market deficit at 1.8 million barrels a day for the third quarter of 2026, more than double the roughly 800,000 barrel a day shortfall it had estimated a month earlier. Brent crude, which surpassed $100 a barrel last month and also fell to near $70, was trading just under $90 a barrel at the time of the report. The IEA warned that although the market is projected to return to surplus toward year end, risks remain substantial and the urgency of reopening the Strait of Hormuz has increased as inventory buffers deplete rapidly.