Goldman Sachs says Persian Gulf oil exports have fallen to about 36% of their pre war level

Goldman Sachs estimated in a report published on Tuesday 4 August 2026 and carried by Reuters that oil exports from Persian Gulf countries, measured on a seven day moving average, have fallen to about 36% of their level before the start of the US war against Iran. The same measure stood at close to 80% in early July.

According to the report, observable global oil inventories have drawn down by 6.3 million barrels a day over the past two weeks, the result of lower exports from the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea, reduced Russian exports and higher imports by Asian countries. Loaded tanker capacity in the Red Sea has fallen 22% since Yemen's Ansarullah declared its blockade, and Saudi Arabian oil exports are down 2.4 million barrels a day from a year earlier. Russian crude and condensate exports have fallen by 1.3 million barrels a day over the past two weeks, while repeated loading disruptions at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal on the Black Sea have kept volumes on that route well below normal.

The bank puts fair value for spot Brent at about $80 a barrel and argues that the market has priced in only a limited part of the geopolitical risk premium. Goldman Sachs expects crude to trade in a range of $80 to $90 a barrel until the fate of a possible US and Iran agreement becomes clear or the conflict escalates significantly. The estimates describe a physical supply squeeze that sits awkwardly with the same day fall in prices driven by hopes of a Hormuz deal.