Michigan consumer sentiment rose to 55.2 in July, its highest level since February

The final reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for July 2026, published on Friday 31 July 2026, came in at 55.2 points, above the preliminary reading and above the market expectation of 54.0. The index stood at 49.5 in June, making the new figure the highest since February, that is, before the US-Iran conflict pushed petrol prices higher.

According to the release, sentiment improved across all income, age, education, wealth and political groups, and consumers' five-year outlook for business conditions climbed to a twelve-month high, though it remained well below its historical average. Despite the improvement, sentiment is still 11% lower than a year earlier, reflecting continued concern over elevated price levels and the lasting effects of several years of high inflation.

On expectations, year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 4.2% from 4.6% in June, while long-run expectations held steady at 3.3%. Interviews for the survey were conducted between 23 June and 27 July 2026. US household inflation expectations are one of the variables the Federal Reserve tracks in its interest rate decisions, and the path of US rates reaches Tehran's coin and currency markets through the dollar index and the gold ounce.