Markets lift odds of a September Fed rate hike to about 62%

According to CME's FedWatch tool, as of Monday, 13 July 2026, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September meeting had risen to about 62 percent. The chance of rates reaching the 3.75 to 4.0 percent range at that meeting climbed to 50.5 percent, up from 33.5 percent a month earlier, while the odds of no change fell to 37.8 percent from 61.7 percent. The jump in oil prices amid the Strait of Hormuz tensions, and the resulting inflation concerns, are cited as the main driver of the shift. A US rate hike typically strengthens the dollar and can weigh on global gold prices, two variables that matter directly for Iran's markets.