Odds of a Fed Rate Increase Rise to 86.9 Percent, Clashing With Trump's Rate Cut Pledge

According to CME FedWatch data reported by Arzdigital on Saturday, September 12, 2026 (21 Shahrivar 1405), the probability of a US Federal Reserve interest rate increase at its upcoming meeting (September 15 and 16, or 24 and 25 Shahrivar) has risen to about 86.9 percent. The hawkish shift runs counter to President Donald Trump's pledge when he replaced Jerome Powell with Kevin Warsh as Fed chair in May, promising rate cuts toward near 1 percent; Warsh has not cut rates since taking office.

Per Arzdigital, August US inflation data, including a 0.3 percentage point rise in monthly core inflation and a 3.9 percent jump in gasoline prices, have reinforced expectations of tighter policy, with UBS analysts now expecting two rate increases this year. Tressis chief economist Daniel Lacalle criticized the shift, warning that raising rates now works against both of the Fed's mandates of price stability and maximum employment.