Odds of a September Fed Rate Hike Climb to About 80% as Gold Defends $4,000

Based on CME's FedWatch tool, the probability that the US Federal Reserve's target rate will be higher after the 16 September (25 Shahrivar) meeting rose to about 80% on Friday (2 Mordad 1405, 24 July 2026), up from roughly 68% earlier. Markets also price in around a 34% chance of a hike at next week's Fed meeting.

The main driver of this repricing is oil's jump above $100 and intensifying inflation concerns. The European Central Bank also held its rate at 2.25% and kept a September increase on the table. Against this backdrop, gold, which had fallen nearly 2% on Thursday, traded around $4,040 on Friday and defended the $4,000 psychological level. The path of US interest rates and the global gold price are key factors shaping Iran's gold and coin market.