OPEC cut its 2026 oil demand growth forecast for a third straight time to 780,000 bpd as OPEC+ is set to pause output increases from October

While geopolitical risk keeps oil prices elevated, the demand and supply side of the market is being revised. According to a report published on Saturday 1 August 2026, OPEC has revised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 down for a third consecutive time, to 780,000 barrels per day.

According to Reuters, sources say OPEC+, the 21 member group comprising OPEC members, Russia and the group's other allies, will most likely pause its oil output increases for three months from October, following a September increase.

In Reuters' July survey of 31 economists and analysts, estimates from 10 analysts point to 2026 oil demand growth falling by roughly 500,000 barrels per day to 1.6 million barrels per day, while estimates of this year's supply deficit range from 1 million to 2.6 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency expects global oil demand to fall by 1 million barrels per day this year and then rise by 2 million barrels per day in 2027. Tobias Keller, an analyst at UniCredit, said the main factor supporting prices remains the additional geopolitical risk premium tied to the war against Iran, which is likely to persist through the second half of the year.