OPEC set to raise September output targets, then pause increases until year end

OPEC will raise its oil production targets by about 188,000 barrels per day in September and then pause further increases for the rest of 2026, Reuters reported on Sunday 2 August 2026, citing sources familiar with the matter. The adjustment is part of the group's plan to return supply to the market gradually after years of cuts designed to support prices.

At its meeting on Sunday 2 August 2026, OPEC will also assess market conditions and discuss production quotas for 2027. The group's output climbed to 19.34 million bpd in June 2026, up 3.3 million bpd from the previous month, as producers along the Persian Gulf restored supplies following disruptions linked to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20 percent of global oil supplies, has remained largely closed since 28 February 2026. For Iran's markets, OPEC's output path and the status of that waterway are the two main variables shaping crude prices and currency expectations.