Reuters July poll lifts the 2026 Brent average to $85.22 as JPMorgan says each month of disruption adds $7 to $8 a barrel

In Reuters' July poll of 31 economists and analysts, Brent crude was forecast to average $85.22 a barrel in 2026, up from $84.50 in the June poll. The forecast average for US crude also rose, to $80.14 from $79.49. The two benchmarks have actually averaged $87.03 and $82.41 respectively so far this year. The report was recirculated on Saturday, 1 August 2026.

Tobias Keller, an analyst at UniCredit, said the main factor supporting oil prices remains the geopolitical risk premium tied to the war against Iran, which is likely to persist through the second half of the year and keep volatility elevated. The US military campaign against Iran, which began in late February, has sharply reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, previously the route for about one fifth of the world's crude oil and natural gas, and has disrupted West Asian output. Yemen's declared naval blockade of Saudi Arabia has also put shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait under pressure, creating a second chokepoint for oil flows. Analysts at JPMorgan wrote in a note last week that each month of supply disruption adds roughly $7 to $8 a barrel to Brent, and that three months of continued disruption would take the monthly average to about $114.

On the demand side, based on estimates from 10 participating analysts, oil demand growth in 2026 is now seen about 500,000 barrels per day lower at 1.6 million bpd, while estimates of this year's supply deficit range from 1 million to 2.6 million bpd. The International Energy Agency projects global demand will fall by 1 million bpd this year and then rise by 2 million bpd in 2027. OPEC also cut its 2026 demand growth forecast for a third consecutive time, to 780,000 bpd. According to a Reuters report citing sources familiar with the matter, OPEC+ is likely to pause output increases for three months from October, after a September increase.