The Fed's new chair defends scaling back forward guidance while critics say it adds uncertainty

Kevin Warsh, the new chair of the US Federal Reserve, said at the press conference following the Fed's most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting that between the last two meetings markets had focused more than before on real economic data, and that reduced use of "forward guidance" had led investors to react directly to economic developments rather than to the central bank's reaction. He described the trend as positive and said the central bank should not always be at the centre of market attention. The report was published on Saturday 1 August 2026 (10 Mordad 1405), citing the Financial Times.

Many analysts disagree with the approach. They argue that even if the central bank publishes less about its future plans, investors still have to forecast the Fed's behaviour, because it sets short-term interest rates and those rates are the pricing basis for many financial assets.

The Fed's communication policy matters indirectly for Iranian markets: the path of dollar interest rates moves the dollar index and the global gold price, and those two are the pricing reference for gold and coin in Iran's domestic market.