Three Fed officials dissent from the rate hold, the most dissents favouring a hike since September 2016

The US Federal Open Market Committee left its target rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% at the close of its meeting on 29 July 2026 (Wednesday, 7 Mordad 1405), but unlike recent meetings the decision was not unanimous: three officials dissented. They were Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan.

The post-meeting statement said all three "preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by ¼ percentage point at this meeting." According to US media reports, that is the largest number of dissents in favour of a rate increase since September 2016, a sign of the split inside the committee over inflation that has stayed above the 2% target for more than five years.

What matters for Iran's market is not the decision itself but the direction of travel: the higher the perceived odds of a US rate increase at coming meetings, the firmer the dollar index and the greater the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset such as gold. Those are the two channels through which a Fed decision reaches the domestic gold and coin market.