US Treasury yields hit highest since January 2025 as bets on a Fed rate hike jump

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose for a fourth straight session on Thursday, 23 July 2026, reaching about 4.71 percent, its highest level since January 2025. The 2-year yield touched 4.37 percent intraday, and the dollar index gained about 0.3 percent to hold above 101.4.

The main driver is the jump in oil prices above 100 dollars amid the Iran-US tensions, which has revived worries about sticky inflation. In response, markets raised the implied odds of a rate hike at the Federal Reserve's 29 July meeting to more than 33 percent and the odds of a hike at the September meeting to more than 78 percent, up from about 61 percent a day earlier. Fresh US labor data, with initial jobless claims falling to their lowest since 1969, added to those expectations.

A more hawkish Fed policy typically strengthens the dollar and weighs on the global gold price, two variables that directly affect Iran's gold and currency markets.