Dollar firms as a safe haven while US Treasury yields climb on the oil spike

The US dollar index stood at about 100.6 in the days to 22 July 2026, firming on safe-haven demand amid the Iran-US war and the jump in oil prices. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries rose above 4.63 percent and the 2-year yield above 4.25 percent.

With the war risk premium lingering in oil prices, some bond traders are pricing in the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike, whereas the market had earlier expected a hold at the 29 July meeting. A stronger dollar and higher US yields typically weigh on gold pricing and on the rial, which is how this connects to Iran's market.