Lead: At midday on Tuesday, 23 Tir 1405 (14 July 2026), the market board shows a clear divergence: the trading floor is red again, yet the parallel market is coming alive. In today's live session, Tehran's TEDPIX index was down about
1.08% by around 11:00 a.m., at
4,913,868 points, slipping further from the psychological five-million line and below 4.92 million. On the other side, the free-market dollar is holding near its fresh record, and global gold, which had dropped below $4,000 on Monday, climbed back
above $4,000 today. The midday loser is clear (equities) and so are the winners (gold and the dollar); the engine on both sides is the same: political risk from the Strait of Hormuz tension, which is pushing money out of risk assets and into hard havens.
Today at a glance
| Index / Asset | Value | Change | As of |
|---|
| TEDPIX (Tehran overall index) | 4,913,868 pts | −1.08% | live, ~11:00 a.m., 23 Tir |
| IFX (Iran Farabourse index) | 38,227 pts | −0.89% | live, ~11:00 a.m., 23 Tir |
| Free-market dollar (Mon 22 Tir close) | 180,985 tomans | +~1,300 | close, 22 Tir |
| Free-market dollar (toman-tether proxy, live) | ~183,220 tomans | near record | midday, 23 Tir |
| "Agreed" dollar (Exchange Center, transfer sell) | ~149,600 tomans | +0.11% | morning, 23 Tir |
| 18-karat gold (per gram) | 17,682,200 tomans | +0.12% | last update eve of 22 Tir |
| Emami coin | ~177,010,000 tomans | −0.56% | eve of 22 Tir |
| Global gold (ounce) | above $4,000 | rebound from below $4,000 | midday, 23 Tir |
| Brent crude | ~$85.8 | +2.85% | midday, 23 Tir |
| Bitcoin | ~$62,605 | +0.65% | midday, 23 Tir |
The bourse, crypto, oil and global gold figures refer to today's live session (Tuesday midday); domestic gold and coin figures are from the last update on Monday evening, and the closing free-dollar rate is from Monday's close. Live rates can be followed on the overall index page and the currency market page. This report continues this morning's Market Pulse.
Today's headlines
- Per live market data, Tehran's TEDPIX fell about 1.08% (nearly 53,000 points) by around 11:00 a.m. in the Tuesday 23 Tir session and slipped below 4.92 million points; the Farabourse index was also down about 0.89%.
- According to capital-market outlets, about 3,959 billion tomans (nearly 3.96 trillion tomans) of retail money left the bourse on Monday 22 Tir, and this outflow is the main driver of the market's multi-week slide.
- According to international news agencies, global gold, which had dropped to around $3,990 (about a 3% fall) on Monday, climbed back above the $4,000 line today, Tuesday.
- The U.S. Federal Reserve chair delivers his first monetary-policy testimony to Congress today, Tuesday; per the FedWatch tool, the market is pricing roughly a 71% chance of a rate hike at the September meeting.
- Continued worries over disruption in the Strait of Hormuz have kept Brent crude near $85.8 (about 2.85% higher) and West Texas Intermediate near $80.4, based on the latest data.
Stocks
The centerpiece of today's midday is the equity market itself. The TEDPIX index, which had closed Monday down 1.79% at 4,966,761 points, again came under selling pressure at today's open and fell another 1.08% to 4,913,868 points by around 11:00 a.m. The Farabourse index was also down about 0.89%, near 38,227. On this basis, Tehran's bourse has been stuck below the psychological five-million line for consecutive days, and each time it approaches that line a fresh wave of supply returns.
The root of the pressure: retail-money outflow. What feeds this decline is the steady exit of retail money. On Monday alone, about 3,959 billion tomans (nearly 3.96 trillion tomans) of retail liquidity left the market, as small investors chose to move their money into the parallel market (dollar and gold). This is the "bourse vs parallel-market divergence" that has dominated for weeks: any news that sharpens Iran-U.S. tension risk simultaneously raises equity supply and dollar demand. Live index detail is available on the overall index page.
The factor to watch through the close: per the pre-open forecasts, the retail-money outflow was expected to slow as the session progressed past its midpoint; whether that happens in today's final hours or selling pressure intensifies again will set the market's short-term direction. This part is analysis and outlook and should be seen separately from the measured figures above.
Currency
In the currency market, the free-market dollar, after rising about 1,300 tomans on Monday to 180,985 tomans, is holding near that record level today, and the live toman-tether rate, the fast proxy for the free market, hovered around 183,220 tomans by midday. To grasp the scale of this level, recall that the free dollar traded around 90,000 tomans this time last year; today's rate is roughly double a year ago.
Alongside the free market, the "agreed" (tavafoghi) dollar rate at Iran's Currency and Gold Exchange Center was around 149,600 tomans (transfer sell rate) this morning, a gap of nearly 33,600 tomans between the two rates. This is the multi-rate currency market, itself an important source of pricing uncertainty; its mechanics are explained in "Iran's Currency Market: Why Are There Several Rates?".
Why? The main driver keeping the dollar at its ceiling is the political risk from the Strait of Hormuz tension and the uncertainty over energy-export routes. When the outlook for FX revenue turns murky, hedging demand for a liquid asset like the dollar rises and holds up the floor under the free-market rate.
Gold & Coin
The domestic gold market was broadly steady as of Monday evening's last update: 18-karat gold traded around 17,682,200 tomans per gram (a slight change, +0.12%) and the Emami coin near 177 million tomans (slightly below the prior day, −0.56%). The Emami coin premium (habab) also stayed around 6.2 million tomans, showing that part of coin demand remains sentiment-driven; its calculation is explained in "What Is the Coin Premium and How Is It Calculated?".
Today's point is the global ounce's rebound. Global gold, which had dropped to around $3,990 (about a 3% fall) on Monday on rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, climbed back above the $4,000 line today, Tuesday. But the key point for the Iranian investor is that the engine driving domestic gold is the dollar rate, not the global ounce alone; that is why domestic gold did not fall even on the days the ounce slid, and held its price floor. Live prices are on the gold market page.
Crypto
The global crypto market was low-volatility and slightly positive by midday: bitcoin traded around $62,605 (+0.65%) and ethereum near $1,783 (+0.72%). The toman-tether rate, however, tracked the domestic dollar and stayed around 183,000 tomans in line with the free market; that is, the Iranian tether holder is driven more by the domestic dollar's swings than by the crypto assets' dollar prices. More data is on the crypto market page.
Iron & Steel
In the physical steel market, Aryan Foulad ribbed rebar (size 10, A3) was posted today around 65,450 tomans per kilo and size 12 near 64,180 tomans (ex-works), with no notable move. Iran's steel is caught between two forces: on one side the rising dollar and energy costs lift the price floor, and on the other, the construction slump and weaker effective demand prevent a fast climb. The net is relative stability for now; up-to-date figures can be tracked on the iron and steel market page.
Cars
In the car market, the main theme remains the limbo over pricing policy: the dispute between the Competition Council and the Ministry of Industry over the adequacy of the factory-price increase for cars is still unresolved, and the file has been referred to oversight bodies. This ambiguity keeps the gap between factory and market prices (the market margin) alive in automaker stocks and the physical market and prevents prices from settling. The rising dollar also adds cost pressure on producers.
Building Materials
The building-materials market is having a quiet day; for example, bulk Portland Type 2 cement (Tehran) is posted around 4,014,000 tomans per ton, with no notable price move. Even so, two background pressures persist: rising energy and carrier costs that lift cement production costs, and weak construction-season demand pulling the other way. The net of these two forces is relative stability for now.
Regional & Global Backdrop
Today's external driver remains the "oil and Fed" pair. In energy, continued worry over ship-transit disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world's oil and gas trade passes, has kept Brent crude near $85.8 (about 2.85% higher) and West Texas Intermediate near $80.4, based on the latest data; the channel to Tehran is twofold: higher oil helps exporters' FX revenue, but the same tension also intensifies hedging demand for the dollar and gold. On the monetary side, expectations of a Fed rate hike (the market puts it around a 71% chance for September) pushed global gold below $4,000 on Monday, but today gold recovered part of that drop and returned above $4,000; the Fed chair's testimony to Congress today could clarify the next direction for the global dollar and gold. In the neighborhood, the Turkish lira held near 47 against the dollar, keeping its long-term weakening trend, and China's yuan was little changed near 6.78 against the dollar.
What to watch today
Through the close of today's bourse session, the key point is the direction of retail money in the final hours and the market's reaction to any fresh news on Iran-U.S. tension; a slowdown or intensification of the outflow will shape tomorrow's mood. In the parallel market, watch the dollar's and tether's reaction to shipping and Strait of Hormuz news. Globally, the Fed chair's testimony to Congress and the path of Brent crude and the gold ounce are the most important scheduled events. Upcoming events can be seen on the Sahmino economic calendar. No part of this report is buy-or-sell advice.
Note: in this report, "measured fact" (figures and reference times) is kept separate from "analysis and outlook" (cautious reasoning).
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