فولادFOLDBullish

I consider the previous period's forecast lost, and I am turning bullish: I give about 60 percent probability that no closing price below 3,260 rial will be recorded until 15 Mehr, because the heavy buy queue is accompanied by retail buying and a price-to-earnings ratio half that of the group. Risk: volume is half the average, and this same stock reversed from 3,410 to 3,300 rial in a single session on 28 Shahrivar.

• Closing price on 6 Mehr 1405: 3,420 rial (2.7 percent growth) at the ceiling of the range; the 3,200 to 3,350 rial channel from the 5 Mehr card broke from above. Its lower invalidation level was not touched, but the range forecast turned out wrong.
• End-of-session buy queue: about 607 million shares from 2,909 buyers, worth approximately 2,076 billion rial (13:25 snapshot).
• Two of the three confirmation criteria hold: buyer-to-seller strength of 1.27 and net retail buying of about 775 million shares after three sessions of retail selling; but volume of 1.83 billion shares is half the monthly average of 3.72 billion.
• Price-to-earnings ratio of 6.6 versus 13.56 for the base metals group (6 Mehr), and the price 11.7 percent above the 20-day average of 3,062 rial.
• Currency effect path: export revenue is converted at the Exchange Center remittance dollar rate, which rose from 1,663,768 rial (28 Shahrivar) to 1,717,400 rial (5 Mehr), a 3.2 percent increase; today's jump in the free-market dollar makes the cost side more expensive.