Skip to main content
Up to 53% offSee the plans

Sahmino callsStocks

کمنگنزMNGZBullish

Our mistake on Kemanganese: the two-session neutral range has broken to the upside and the stock is in a buy queue at its 52-week high

Horizon: Short-term (7 trading sessions, to 14 Mehr 1405)

Price when published

10,020 rials

That dayunchanged0.0%

Invalidation

9,450 rials

The levels on the chart

Since writtenup11.0%

Conclusion

I accept the range was a mistake and turn bullish with limited confidence: I put roughly a 55 percent probability that the closing price stays above 9,450 rial through 14 Mehr and at least one close is recorded higher than 10,020. The risk is right here: this rally was built on volume less than one-fifth of the average, and in a ticker that had two sessions this very month with no recorded trades, the buy queue can open back up just as fast with the first bit of supply.

The evidence

  • The 1 Mehr neutral view broke: we had said the closing price would stay between 9,030 and 9,450 rial through 12 Mehr, but on 4 Mehr it closed at 9,730 and on 5 Mehr at 10,020 rial, above that. The 8,840 rial invalidation level was not touched, but the range scenario was wrong.
  • Three consecutive sessions have closed at the top of the range (9,450, 9,730 and 10,020 rial), and 10,020 is the 52-week high. The close on 5 Mehr was a buy queue of 217 people with about 20.2 million shares, with no supply at all.
  • But the volume gate fails: traded volume on 5 Mehr was only 3.4 million shares, about 0.14 times the monthly average (24.6 million shares). A buyer strength of 5.56 and a net retail inflow of 1.42 million shares have been built on such thin volume.
  • Valuation is supportive: the TSE P/E is 7.61 against 13.76 for the metal ores group (4 Mehr 1405). Manganese is an input for steelmaking, so demand from domestic steelmakers is the main anchor; we do not have today's manganese ore price in our data.
  • Policy dial: government mining royalties, electricity and freight rates, and regulations on exporting raw mineral materials bear directly on this small company's margin. With inflation at 87.9 percent (Statistical Center, Tir 1405), do not read nominal price growth as real.

If it holds

If the closing price stays above 9,450 rial, the base scenario is a continuation of breaking the ceiling above 10,020 rial; its credibility rises once volume reaches the average.

If it breaks

If the closing price falls back below 9,450 rial, this view is invalidated, and the break of the previous ceiling was a low-volume queue that got reversed.

What to watch

What to watch: whether the 20.2 million share queue holds at reopening or opens with selling, volume relative to the 24.6 million share average, and the Shahrivar activity report on Codal (volume and sales rate).

Every call on this symbol

12 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written

  1. 28 September 08:48BullishOur mistake on Kemanganese: the two-session neutral range has broken to the upside and the stock is in a buy queue at its 52-week high10,020 rialsup11.0%
  2. 23 September 08:46NeutralThe 9,030 rial ceiling broke, but on volume equal to the average, and demand at the top of the range was only 0.06 percent of the day's volume9,270 rialsup8.1%
  3. 21 September 08:49NeutralThe second consecutive floor also went and today, before the opening, there was not even one buy order on the board8,860 rialsup4.6%
  4. 20 September 08:38NeutralWe ourselves had placed the invalidator of the previous reading at 9,280 rial, and that is the same level breached, while the 9,030 rial floor still holds9,090 rialsdown2.5%
  5. 12 September 13:40NeutralRetail that had sold 10.5 million shares on Wednesday turned buyer today, but the closing price is still below the 52-week peak9,320 rialsdown2.5%
  6. 7 September 13:34NeutralToday's board for Komanganese has no retail or institutional figures; the price is up just 0.5 percent from the previous card, in a market that hit a record9,330 rialsdown0.1%
  7. 31 August 11:34NeutralKanmangan broke above the 8,940 rial resistance and reached a fresh all-time high of 9,280 rial; but the flow-confirmation triangle is not yet complete9,280 rialsup0.5%
  8. 26 August 13:09NeutralComnegenz crossed the historic ceiling of 8,870 rial, but the net retail money inflow has become smaller every day than the day before8,880 rialsup4.5%
  9. 25 August 13:23NeutralKemangenz approached its historical ceiling of 8,870 rial again, but real-money flow confirmation is still weak8,760 rialsup1.4%
  10. 20 August 17:56NeutralKamangonez locked up limit for two sessions and reached 8,370 rial, but turnover is thin; outlook to neutral8,370 rialsup4.7%
  11. 17 August 17:47BullishKamangonez hit a 52-week record for a second straight day and reached 7,900 rial; volume is still below the monthly average7,900 rialsup5.9%
  12. 16 August 13:15BullishKomanganese crossed the 52-week high (7,620 rial) to reach 7,670 rial; outlook changed from neutral to cautiously bullish7,670 rialsup3.0%