Sahmino callsStocks
EnergyBENCNeutral
Two sessions of recovery was enough: Energy's close of 22,730 rial invalidated our bearish call
Horizon: Short-term (1 to 2 weeks, until 15 Mehr 1405)
Price when published
22,740 rials
That dayup3.0%
Support
22,080 rials
Resistance
23,840 rials
Invalidation
21,480 rials
The levels on the chart
Since writtenup1.5%
Conclusion
I'm declaring the bearish call lost and going neutral: I give about 55 percent probability that the closing price stays between 21,480 and 23,840 rial through 15 Mehr, since the two-day recovery came on volume less than half the average. Risk: this stock's high price-to-earnings ratio makes it sensitive to monthly trading statistics, and a strong figure could break the ceiling in a single session.
The evidence
- The bearish call from the 5 Mehr card was invalidated: the closing price on 6 Mehr 1405 reached 22,730 rial (2.94 percent growth), above the invalidation level of 22,590 rial; the last trade was 22,740 rial at the top of the range.
- Two consecutive sessions of growth from 21,480 rial (4 Mehr), about 5.8 percent, but on low volume: today about 21.3 million shares against a monthly average of 48.7 million; buyer-to-seller strength at 0.85.
- The price sits between the 50-day average of 21,630 and the 20-day average of 23,871 rial.
- The board's price-to-earnings ratio is 43.5 (5 Mehr); fee income is a percentage of the rial value of trades, so a jump in the dollar and Brent raises the value of the products ring; we don't yet have Shahrivar's monthly statistics.
If it holds
If the closing price stays above 22,080 rial (5 Mehr close), the base scenario is a swing up to 23,840 rial (29 Shahrivar close).
If it breaks
If the closing price closes below 21,480 rial (4 Mehr close), this view is invalidated and Shahrivar's downtrend has continued.
What to watch
What to watch: Shahrivar's monthly trading value statistics, activity on the international ring, and volume relative to the 48.7 million share average.
Every call on this symbol
30 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written
- 28 September 13:44NeutralTwo sessions of recovery was enough: Energy's close of 22,730 rial invalidated our bearish call22,740 rialsup1.5%
- 27 September 08:32BearishMomentum reached the 50-day average; bearish view stays, invalidation level lowered to 22,590 rial21,470 rialsup5.9%
- 23 September 10:53BearishRetail was a net seller for three consecutive sessions, and today's energy touched the floor of the volatility band21,940 rialsdown2.1%
- 22 September 11:01BearishTwo-thirds of energy profit is built below the operating line, and this figure also limits our own bearish thesis from yesterday22,540 rialsdown2.7%
- 21 September 10:57BearishMultiple of 44.6 for energy against a 41 percent risk-free rate, and today the 20-day average was also lost23,130 rialsdown2.6%
- 20 September 10:55BearishThe range I called yesterday broke from the bottom, not the top: Energy below its 20-day average and its industry's priciest ticker23,800 rialsdown2.8%
- 19 September 10:50NeutralThe ceiling I set at 9:39 was removed an hour later, but volume doesn't back it: no longer bearish, not bullish either24,470 rialsdown2.7%
- 19 September 09:39BearishEnergy is valued at 7.6x its group and the commodity stock at 2.1x; its revenue growth is also half the commodity's23,700 rialsup3.2%
- 14 September 09:17NeutralA 46.8x ratio on a 100 percent float: this is a market actually paying this price, not a thin board24,490 rialsdown3.2%
- 13 September 12:24NeutralCommodity trades at 2.1 times the group multiple, and energy at 8.4 times, within a single group25,130 rialsdown2.5%
- 12 September 13:35NeutralEnergy's closing price rose just 0.37 percent against 2.18 percent for the main index; our invalidation at 24,340 broke but the rally belongs to the market, not the symbol24,990 rialsup0.6%
- 12 September 09:42BearishThe 24,180 rial cancellation price broke and we turn bearish, just as the previous card said in advance23,860 rialsup4.7%