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Sahmino callsStocks

ونیکیNIKINeutral

455 buyers stayed in the queue at Vanики's ceiling and the 5,590 rial cancellation line left our bearish call behind

Horizon: Short-term (1 to 2 weeks, until 15 Mehr 1405)

Price when published

5,650 rials

That dayup2.9%

Support

5,490 rials

Resistance

5,740 rials

Invalidation

5,360 rials

The levels on the chart

Since writtenup4.1%

Conclusion

I declare the bearish call lost and go neutral: I give about 55 percent probability that the closing price stays between 5,360 and 5,740 rial until 15 Mehr, since today's queue came with volume near half the average. Risk: with the 13 percent float, this same low-volume queue could hit the 5,740 ceiling tomorrow as well, and on the other side a down day for the overall index could take it back.

The evidence

  • The bearish call from the 5 Mehr card was cancelled: the closing price on 6 Mehr 1405 reached 5,650 rial, the range ceiling, (2.91 percent growth), above the 5,590 rial cancellation level.
  • The buy queue at session close was about 8.7 million shares from 455 buyers, worth approximately 49 billion rial; the day's volume was about 25.7 million shares, near half the monthly average of 48.6 million.
  • Net retail buying was about 5.1 million shares, but the buyer-to-seller power ratio was 0.26; the confirmation triad does not hold.
  • Vanики is a financial investment company with a stock market portfolio, and most of its value change comes from the market price: the overall index rose 1.69 percent on 5 Mehr. We do not have the monthly portfolio disclosure in today's data.
  • Price-to-earnings ratio of 8.16 versus 10.67 for the group (5 Mehr) and 13 percent free float.

If it holds

If the closing price stays above 5,490 rial (5 Mehr close), the base scenario is a swing up to the 5,740 rial ceiling (30 Shahrivar close).

If it breaks

If the closing price closes below 5,360 rial (4 Mehr close), this view is invalidated and selling pressure again has the upper hand.

What to watch

What to watch: the Shahrivar portfolio disclosure on Codal, the overall index, and the value of the buy queue at tomorrow's reopening.

Every call on this symbol

16 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written

  1. 28 September 13:40Neutral455 buyers stayed in the queue at Vanики's ceiling and the 5,590 rial cancellation line left our bearish call behind5,650 rialsup4.1%
  2. 27 September 08:40BearishBuyer strength 0.27 at the bottom of the range: Vanicky went past our bearish target and the target moves one notch lower5,390 rialsup4.8%
  3. 22 September 13:56BearishThe queue that had been locked for eight sessions returned today, and 7.4 million shares found no buyer at the floor of the price band5,570 rialsdown3.2%
  4. 19 September 13:50NeutralHalf of Vaniki's 50 percent capital increase comes out of the shareholder's own pocket, in the ninth consecutive buy-queue day5,740 rialsdown3.0%
  5. 16 September 11:07NeutralTwo-thirds of this rally is just catching up to the market that rose while the symbol was halted5,580 rialsup2.9%
  6. 15 September 11:14BullishVanicki's growth was more than double the index, and its half-year profit is also mostly recurring5,420 rialsup3.0%
  7. 14 September 11:13BullishSixth consecutive locked-limit session, and all of today's price discovery happened in 297 trades5,270 rialsup2.8%
  8. 13 September 13:24BullishTwo Vonik auctions remain unfinished; today's buy queue went from 89x to 4.2x real trading5,120 rialsup2.9%
  9. 12 September 11:50BullishFourth consecutive ceiling with total trading of 15 billion rial; today's queue is 89 times what actually traded4,980 rialsup2.8%
  10. 9 September 11:28Bullish261 million shares demanded against zero supply, and today's total trading is 3.3 million shares; this price is a queue, not a clearing4,840 rialsup2.9%
  11. 9 September 08:40BullishAfter a 50 percent capital increase, Veniki hit a buy queue at its highest 52-week closing price4,700 rialsup3.0%
  12. 23 August 13:33NeutralVanики touched the previous card's cancellation level (6,460 rial); the bullish view is no longer defensible6,470 rialsdown27.4%