شفنPFANNeutral

The previous range forecast from above turned out wrong, and I remain neutral with a higher range: I give about 55 percent probability that no closing price below 7,260 rial will be recorded until 15 Mehr, because methanol and the remittance dollar have filled below earnings. Risk: today's queue is small and the valuation is near three times the group, and with a 15 percent float, one session of supply is enough to break this level.

• Closing price on 6 Mehr 1405: 7,660 rial (2.96 percent growth) at the ceiling of the range, above the 7,440 rial resistance; the 4 Mehr card range broke from above, though the lower invalidation level of 6,950 rial remained untouched.
• The buy queue is small: about 615 thousand shares from 15 buyers, worth approximately 4.7 billion rial (13:25); the day's volume is about 40 million shares, close to the monthly average of 44 million.
• Buyer-to-seller strength is 1.45, but retail investors net sold about 4.9 million shares and the buying was from the institutional side; the triple confirmation is not in place.
• Price-to-earnings ratio of 26.97 versus 9.55 for the chemical products group (6 Mehr), nearly three times.
• Earnings anchor: China methanol at 3,513 yuan per ton on 2 Mehr, 18.7 percent higher than a month earlier (TradingEconomics); export revenue is converted using the remittance dollar, which reached 1,717,400 rial on 5 Mehr.