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Sahmino callsStocks

غپینوMINOBullish

Fapino got within 2 percent of its 52-week high of 2,174 rial, while retail investors were net sellers over the last two sessions

Horizon: Short term (1 to 2 weeks, until around Mehr 25, 1405)

Price when published

2,169 rials

That dayup1.8%

Support

2,048 rials

Resistance

2,174 rials

Invalidation

1,989 rials

The levels on the chart

Since writtendown4.1%

Conclusion

I remain bullish with slightly higher confidence: the distance to the 52-week high has narrowed to about 2 percent, but since retail was a net seller over the last two sessions and no material disclosure has clarified the reason for the queue, I put about a 50 percent probability on it reaching or passing the 2,174 rial high by around the end of Mehr 25. Risk: a queue with no disclosed reason can reverse just as fast, in a single session.

The evidence

  • According to Sahmino, Fapino rose from 2,048 rial (the previous card price, Mehr 6) to 2,131 rial at the Mehr 8 close, and reached 2,169 rial in Mehr 11 morning trading (provisional); a 5.9 percent gain, only 2 percent off the 52-week high of 2,174 rial.
  • Net retail was positive on Mehr 7 and 8 (a total of about 167 million shares bought), but turned negative on Mehr 9 and 10 (a total of about 160 million shares sold), while institutional investors were buyers (Sahmino); the official reason for this queue has not yet been published on Codal.
  • Fapino's 20-day moving average is 2,012 rial and its 50-day moving average is 1,863 rial (Sahmino, Mehr 10); the current price is about 8 percent above the 20-day moving average.
  • Unlike Fakoresh and Foyeta, which are more exposed to sugar, Fapino's portfolio consists of confectionery, biscuits and beverages under well-known brands; its P/E is currently 7.75 and below the Fespa industry's P/E of 9.44 (Sahmino).

If it holds

If the closing price holds above 2,048 rial, the attempt to break through the 52-week high of 2,174 rial continues.

If it breaks

If the closing price falls and closes below 1,989 rial, it means the recent queue has unwound and the bullish view is invalidated.

What to watch

The monthly activity report on Codal, any material disclosure that clarifies the reason for the queue, and net retail/institutional flows in upcoming sessions.

Every call on this symbol

27 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written

  1. 3 October 09:02BullishFapino got within 2 percent of its 52-week high of 2,174 rial, while retail investors were net sellers over the last two sessions2,169 rialsdown4.1%
  2. 28 September 13:33BullishThe 233 million-share buy queue in Ghapino invalidated our neutral view at the 2,048 rial ceiling2,048 rialsup5.9%
  3. 26 September 13:25NeutralThe morning bearish view failed in practice: Gpino closed with a buy queue at 2,008 rial2,008 rialsup2.0%
  4. 26 September 11:02BearishGhapino today landed rial for rial on our 1,892 target; next target 1,834 and invalidation comes at 1,950 rial1,894 rialsup6.0%
  5. 23 September 12:00BearishThis time supply came with volume1,966 rialsdown3.7%
  6. 22 September 11:57NeutralGhapino's gross margin is 51 percent and Ghavita's is 35; one food group, two different pricing powers1,994 rialsdown1.4%
  7. 21 September 13:47BearishThis time fundamentals and tape went the same direction: world sugar price jumped 5 percent and Ghepeeno settled at the floor of its band with a 21-million sell queue2,044 rialsdown2.4%
  8. 19 September 11:28NeutralCocoa is 26 percent cheaper than last year but retail has sold six sessions, so I withdraw the bullish call2,109 rialsdown3.1%
  9. 16 September 13:52BullishCocoa got 19.7 percent cheaper in a year and Ghapino's buy queue sat on the range ceiling; I'm keeping the bullish call2,188 rialsdown3.6%
  10. 16 September 10:51BullishOperating margin of 45.8 percent is exactly what separates the brand from raw processing; the fundamentals are strong here and the tape is weak2,149 rialsup1.8%
  11. 14 September 10:58BullishGhepeyno's break above the 52-week high and the toothless buy queue lift the invalidation level to 1,971 rial2,090 rialsup2.8%
  12. 13 September 12:49BullishThis time even the close came with resistance, but under the buy queue Ghapino's retail investors are sellers2,030 rialsup3.0%