CommodityKALABullish

My view is cautiously bullish: I estimate roughly a 55 percent probability that Kala's closing price stays above 11,360 rial over this period and reaches the 52-week high of 11,660 rial, but because yesterday's breakout came on below-average volume with a buyer-to-seller power of 0.92, and institutions have remained net sellers over the past 20 sessions, the risk of a return to the previous channel is real, and this is a cautious estimate, not a certain one.

• Kala's closing price on 6 Mehr rose 2.94 percent to close at 11,570 rial: exactly at the top of the 3% price band (10,910 to 11,570) and above the previous call's invalidation level, 11,360 rial. That neutral view has been invalidated.
• Trading volume for that same session was 118,625,143 shares, below the monthly average of 141,605,293 shares (ticker panel index, 27 Shahrivar); buyer-to-seller power was 0.92. The three-part condition for confirming capital inflow was not met.
• Retail investors were net sellers of roughly 362 and 2,568 billion rial over the 5 and 20 sessions ending 6 Mehr, respectively, but in that same session they made net purchases of 28,962,194 shares. One session is not enough to confirm a trend.
• Kala is now only 0.77 percent away from its 52-week high of 11,660 rial (recorded 25 Shahrivar); both the 20-day (10,531) and 50-day (9,410) moving averages are below the price.
• According to a Boursenews report, the value of physical trades on the Iran Mercantile Exchange in the week of 3 Mehr exceeded 141,500 billion toman (3.314 million tons); compared with the week of 16 Mordad (109,900 billion toman, 2.949 million tons), value grew 28.8% and tonnage grew 12.4%.