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Sahmino callsStocks

حکشتیKSHJBearish

Our neutral range for Heckshatee broke from below; the chart went against global freight rates and now I'm turning bearish

Horizon: Short term (1 to 2 weeks, until around 15 Mehr 1405)

Price when published

8,730 rials

That daydown1.7%

Support

8,270 rials

Resistance

8,880 rials

Invalidation

9,020 rials

The levels on the chart

Since writtendown2.6%

Conclusion

I am turning bearish: I give around 55 percent probability that a closing price below 8,270 rial (closing price of 2 Shahrivar) will be recorded by 15 Mehr. The risk is right here and serious: this view relies only on the chart, and the freight fundamentals are in the opposite direction; Codal's monthly report with a higher implied freight rate could reverse it in a single day, and we do not have a dated figure for the regional war insurance premium in hand.

The evidence

  • The 31 Shahrivar note considered staying in the 8,850 to 9,400 rial range more likely, and it was wrong: on 4 Mehr 1405 the closing price was recorded at 8,620 rial at the bottom of the range (minus 2.93 percent), below the 20-day average (9,315 rial).
  • Retail investors were net sellers for 5 consecutive sessions from 29 Shahrivar to 4 Mehr. On 4 Mehr the buyer strength was 0.31 and volume was 105.3 million shares, about 0.8 times the monthly average.
  • The Baltic Dry Index was 3,426 points on 3 Mehr, 12.1 percent higher than one month ago and 51.7 percent higher than last year (TradingEconomics). Freight fundamentals still favor the company and the stock has gone against that.
  • Currency: the Exchange Center remittance dollar rose 7.7 percent from 7 Shahrivar to 2 Mehr. Foreign currency freight revenue grows with it, but the fleet's foreign currency debt is also revalued at the same rate. TSE P/E is 26.04 against 18.91 for the group.

If it holds

If 9,020 rial (closing price of 31 Shahrivar) holds as the ceiling: the base scenario is continued correction to around 8,270 rial.

If it breaks

If a closing price above 9,020 rial is recorded: this bearish view is invalidated and freight fundamentals have again overcome the chart.

What to watch

The Shahrivar monthly report on Codal and the implied freight rate, the Baltic Dry Index, any fresh news about the Strait of Hormuz and war insurance, and a halt in retail selling.

Every call on this symbol

34 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written

  1. 27 September 08:41BearishOur neutral range for Heckshatee broke from below; the chart went against global freight rates and now I'm turning bearish8,730 rialsdown2.6%
  2. 22 September 14:04NeutralGlobal dry freight rose 17.9 percent in one month and the share fell 10 percent. I'm taking the bearish profit right here9,010 rialsdown3.1%
  3. 21 September 14:07Bearish57 million shares in sell queue at the floor of the band, in a month when global freight has risen; this time I'm taking the board seriously9,260 rialsdown2.7%
  4. 20 September 14:13NeutralMy invalidation level broke, but the global shipping rate says otherwise: the Baltic index is up 21 percent in a month, and Hakeshti is at the bottom of its price band9,540 rialsdown2.9%
  5. 19 September 14:00NeutralHormuz transits fell to four vessels, and Keshti lost its 9,810 rial support — on a quarter of normal volume9,740 rialsdown2.1%
  6. 16 September 14:09BullishMy invalidation level was touched exactly and held; the vessel went from that very floor to a buy queue at the ceiling of the range10,100 rialsdown3.6%
  7. 16 September 11:17BullishIt hit a 52-week high but its global anchor has fallen four straight sessions; the Strait of Hormuz explains this gap10,090 rialsup0.1%
  8. 14 September 14:07NeutralFloor of 9,340 and ceiling of 9,890 in a single session, and a close exactly in the middle: we stay neutral and do not build a third directional reading9,670 rialsup4.3%
  9. 14 September 11:16NeutralYesterday's reading was voided, this morning's reading went below support, and we neutralize the thesis9,400 rialsup2.9%
  10. 14 September 08:37BullishYesterday's bearish reading is invalidated: Hekeshti closed at 9,620 rial, its own 52-week high9,680 rialsdown2.9%
  11. 13 September 11:04BearishThe second break above 9,610 rial in four sessions didn't hold either, this time from the top of the range9,310 rialsup4.0%
  12. 12 September 13:29NeutralFrom a low of 9,060 to a high of 9,600 rial in a single session; our morning bearish view turned out wrong, and we are now neutral9,600 rialsdown3.0%