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Sahmino callsStocks

نوریNORIBearish

Nouri Loses Both the 48,840 Support and the 47,790 Invalidation; a Tenth Straight Session of Net Individual Selling Turns This Card Bearish

Horizon: Short term (1 to 2 weeks, through about Mehr 27, 1405)

Price when published

47,900 rials

That dayup0.9%

Support

46,400 rials

Resistance

47,790 rials

Invalidation

48,840 rials

The levels on the chart

Since writtenup4.8%

Conclusion

With the close breaking both published levels and a tenth straight session of net individual selling, we move to bearish: about 55% odds Nouri prints at least one close below 46,400 rials through the horizon; a closing recovery above 48,840 rials would invalidate this view.

The evidence

  • The prior card's neutral view (posted Mehr 12) is invalidated: the Mehr 12 close of 48,560 rials fell below the 48,840 support, and the Mehr 13 close of 47,470 rials dropped even further, through the 47,790 invalidation.
  • Individual investors have now sold net for a tenth straight session through Mehr 13; the last two sessions alone saw net individual selling of 12,152,813 and 3,784,785 shares.
  • Per the codal monthly activity report for the one month period ending Shahrivar 31, Nouri's domestic benzene sale rate was 1,544,525,918 rials per ton; at the Exchange Centre remittance dollar on the same date (1,683,754 rials), that is about $917 per ton, not the free dollar rate.
  • The Mehr 14 pre open indicative price matched demand and supply around 46,500 rials, below the Mehr 13 close; the 20 day moving average (47,012.5 rials) now sits close to price and is no longer a strong support.
  • Trap: a higher oil price alone is not bullish for Nouri since naphtha also gets pricier; what drives profitability is the aromatics to naphtha spread, not the oil level or the free dollar level.

If it holds

If closes stay below the 47,790 resistance, the base case bearish scenario continues, with price heading toward the 46,400 support.

If it breaks

If a close moves above 48,840 rials, the bearish view is invalidated and a return to the prior neutral range should be reconsidered.

What to watch

Whether the individual selling continues or stops, the Mehr monthly activity report on codal, and the naphtha feedstock rate from the refineries.

Every call on this symbol

30 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written

  1. 6 October 09:02BearishNouri Loses Both the 48,840 Support and the 47,790 Invalidation; a Tenth Straight Session of Net Individual Selling Turns This Card Bearish47,900 rialsup4.8%
  2. 4 October 08:54NeutralNouri; eighth consecutive session of net retail selling, final price stood only 30 rial above the 49,780 support49,570 rialsdown3.4%
  3. 3 October 08:57BullishNouri came within less than one percent of its all-time high, while retail investors were net sellers for seven straight sessions51,270 rialsdown3.3%
  4. 30 September 08:53BullishNouri: The Shahrivar report that the neutral card was waiting for has arrived; the benzene/naphtha spread widened and a morning buy queue formed49,790 rialsup3.0%
  5. 23 September 11:54NeutralFrom the ceiling of the band to the floor of the band, in one session49,760 rialsup0.1%
  6. 22 September 11:52NeutralNouri's premium to the chemicals group rose from 32 to 41 percent; the Shahrivar report now has to bring an even bigger number51,420 rialsdown3.2%
  7. 20 September 13:42NeutralA buy queue with not one share offered pushed Nouri to a year high; my caution came at a costly price, but I'm not moving the 45,050 line49,220 rialsup4.5%
  8. 19 September 11:17NeutralI had promised to go neutral without the Shahrivar report, and the report has still not come, so today, at the ceiling of the range, I am going neutral47,790 rialsup3.0%
  9. 16 September 10:48BullishFourth session of the buy-queue lock; today's queue is 5.6 times the monthly average volume and there is no supply at any price46,400 rialsup3.0%
  10. 15 September 10:55BullishOne month's sales in Mordad for Nouri reached 56 percent of the full four months before it45,050 rialsup3.0%
  11. 14 September 10:48BullishOne Nima session up and Open (free) down, but the longer window is the opposite; this difference must be stated43,740 rialsup3.0%
  12. 13 September 12:42BullishNouri's Khordad sales came in 2.2 times the average, but the export rate fell while the domestic rate rose 22 percent42,470 rialsup3.0%