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Sahmino callsStocks

وغدیرGDIRNeutral

GDIR rose 2.99% to 21,720 rials, nearing the 22,420-rial resistance; the view stays neutral

Horizon: short term (the next 8 to 10 trading sessions)

Price when published

21,720 rials

That dayup3.0%

Support

20,330 rials

Resistance

22,420 rials

Invalidation

20,660 rials

The levels on the chart

Since writtenunchanged0.0%

Conclusion

The neutral view holds within the 20,330 to 22,420-rial channel: today's price neared the ceiling but volume stayed below average. I put roughly 45% probability on reaching or clearing 22,420 rials; a sustained drop below 20,660 turns the view bearish. The main risk is the open gap between the free-market and remittance dollars for the export and refining units.

The evidence

  • Today's closing price (14 Mehr 1405) for GDIR rose 2.99% to 21,720 rials; within the last card's neutral range (20,330 to 22,420 rials) it moved toward the ceiling without breaking it.
  • Buyer strength is 1.12 and individual net flow was positive at 29.1 million shares, but today's volume (79.3 million shares) stayed below the monthly average (88.4 million shares); the three-part test is not fully confirmed.
  • The gap between the free-market dollar (2,687,000 rials) and the Exchange Centre remittance dollar (1,762,815 rials) on 5 Mehr was about 924,185 rials, meaning the free rate is roughly 52% above it; that gap is a margin risk for GDIR's refining and petrochemical units.
  • Brent crude was 98.67 dollars today (down 1.59%); we do not have the exact refining crack spread for GDIR's refining units, so this is cited only as the global anchor, not the actual margin.
  • GDIR's P/E (11.2) is nearly level with the diversified-industrial-holdings sector average (11.19) as of 14 Mehr 1405; the recent rally has not made it pricier than its sector.

If it holds

If the closing price clears 22,420 rials, the view turns bullish and the channel opens to the upside.

If it breaks

If the closing price falls below 20,660 rials, the neutral view is invalidated and a downtrend becomes likely.

What to watch

Watch the gap between the free-market and remittance dollars, the Brent price and refining-unit crack spreads, and GDIR subsidiaries' monthly activity reports on Codal.

Every call on this symbol

27 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written

  1. 6 October 13:46NeutralGDIR rose 2.99% to 21,720 rials, nearing the 22,420-rial resistance; the view stays neutral21,720 rialsunchanged0.0%
  2. 5 October 13:31NeutralVaghadir: support at 21,220 lost as well; free dollar and havaleh gap widens21,050 rialsup3.2%
  3. 4 October 13:34NeutralVaghadir's closing price settled below the 22,250 rial support; the outlook shifted from bullish to neutral and the gap between the free dollar and remittance rate reopened21,670 rialsdown2.9%
  4. 30 September 08:46BullishVaghadir hit the buy queue on Wednesday morning and, with a third straight day of gains, reached 2 percent of its 52-week high21,850 rialsdown0.8%
  5. 28 September 13:27NeutralYesterday's bearish signal on Vaghdir lasted one day: closing price of 21,220 rial passed back above the cancellation line21,270 rialsup2.7%
  6. 27 September 13:28BearishVaghdir's last trade passed 20,920 rial, but the closing price stayed at 20,660 rial and sellers were waiting at the ceiling20,930 rialsup1.6%
  7. 26 September 10:56BearishFirst confession: Vaghadir's 20,820 rial line was broken with a 31 Shahrivar close; now we're below the 20-day average and turning bearish20,300 rialsup3.1%
  8. 21 September 11:34NeutralThe 20,820 rial level was touched and rejected today, but on one-fifth of normal volume; so I'm not raising its credibility20,820 rialsdown2.5%
  9. 20 September 11:38NeutralIn a tape where symbols were mostly left without buyers, Vaghdir traded close to a full session's volume by 11 o'clock21,290 rialsdown2.2%
  10. 19 September 11:01NeutralFrom the range ceiling to the range floor in a single session, and neither on volume, so I stay neutral and only revise the geometry of the levels21,590 rialsdown1.4%
  11. 16 September 13:59NeutralOur resistance was taken at the close this time, but on below-average volume; without NAV, neutral is the only honest vote22,010 rialsdown1.9%
  12. 16 September 09:59NeutralThe supply we saw on the ceiling yesterday did its job today: the stock went to 22,640 and gave it all back21,910 rialsup0.5%