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Sahmino callsStocks

ومعادنMADNBullish

MADN decisively broke above the 3,680-rial resistance to a fresh 52-week high; the view changes from neutral to bullish

Horizon: short term (the next 2 to 3 weeks)

Price when published

3,690 rials

That dayup2.8%

Support

3,680 rials

Resistance

3,790 rials

Invalidation

3,490 rials

The levels on the chart

Since writtenunchanged0.0%

Conclusion

The view moves from neutral to bullish: today's close cleared the 3,680-rial resistance, setting a fresh 52-week high; the new invalidation level is 3,490. I put roughly 55% probability on it holding above 3,680 toward 3,790 rials; the main risk is volume below average and a gain that tracks the main index.

The evidence

  • Today's closing price (14 Mehr 1405) for MADN rose 2.79% to 3,690 rials; for the first time it closed above the last card's 3,680-rial resistance, setting a fresh 52-week high.
  • Today's individual net flow was positive at 158.8 million shares and buyer strength was 1.50, but volume (329.9 million shares) stayed clearly below the monthly average (1,040.5 million shares); the three-part test is not fully confirmed.
  • MADN's P/E is 11.6 versus the metal-ore-mining sector average of 15.75 (14 Mehr 1405); it still trades below its sector average.
  • The main index rose 2.40% today and MADN's gain tracked that broad bounce; since MADN is a mining holding company, without knowing each subsidiary's portfolio weight the move cannot be pinned on one company's news.
  • The global iron ore benchmark (62% Fe index) was 91.45 dollars on 5 Mehr 1405 (up 0.11%), nearly unchanged; MADN's portfolio NAV is not available to us tonight, so this card could not compute a P/NAV ratio.

If it holds

If the 3,680-rial level (the former resistance, now a floor) holds, the move toward 3,790 rials and beyond likely continues.

If it breaks

If the closing price falls below 3,490 rials, the bullish view is invalidated and a return to the earlier range becomes likely.

What to watch

Watch the main index's trend, MADN's volume against its monthly average, and subsidiaries' monthly activity reports on Codal.

Every call on this symbol

17 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written

  1. 6 October 13:44BullishMADN decisively broke above the 3,680-rial resistance to a fresh 52-week high; the view changes from neutral to bullish3,690 rialsunchanged0.0%
  2. 4 October 13:31NeutralVamaadan's closing price broke below the 3,670 rial support for the first time; view shifts from bullish to neutral3,570 rialsup3.4%
  3. 30 September 13:31BullishVamaaden stuck to the top of its price band and broke through the 3,670 rial resistance; volume is still below average3,680 rialsdown3.0%
  4. 28 September 10:50BullishTwo sessions of net retail buying, the exact condition Vamaadan was missing; the view turns bullish but volume is still half-done3,490 rialsup5.4%
  5. 23 September 13:27NeutralVeматарan took back today's low, but the real buyer did not return, and I'm stepping away from the bearish stance3,350 rialsup4.2%
  6. 22 September 11:27BearishSoud O Ma'aden net profit up 217 percent while its price has fallen for four sessions; a holding's price is the price of its portfolio, not its own profit3,250 rialsup3.1%
  7. 20 September 11:36BearishPer-capita real seller to buyer ratio is 1.7x, and no trade has been recorded between 2,974 and 3,280 rial3,430 rialsdown5.2%
  8. 16 September 10:10BearishOmadan went today from the top of its band to the bottom: 3,780 to 3,560 rial in a single session, and our support went with it3,560 rialsdown3.7%
  9. 15 September 10:10NeutralThe 22 percent discount to the industry multiple became 2.8 percent in two sessions; the base of our bullish call has nearly been used up3,680 rialsdown3.3%
  10. 9 September 14:06BullishToday's figure of 13.58 percent is not a traded gain, it is a reopening after a halt with a new base of 3,280 rial3,378 rialsup8.9%
  11. 6 September 11:46BullishOmadanin locked at the band ceiling, but the metric that measures this case isn't in our hands2,908 rialsup16.2%
  12. 1 September 11:38NeutralVamadan rejected the 2,899 rial redemption level and reached 2,959 rial, but then fell to 2,811 rial; a volatile day, outlook turns neutral2,811 rialsup3.5%