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Sahmino callsStocks

وبصادرBSDRBearish

BSDR rose 2.93% to 914 rials; no level broke, and the bearish view continues with greater caution

Horizon: short term (the next 6 to 8 trading sessions)

Price when published

914 rials

That dayup2.9%

Support

852 rials

Resistance

932 rials

Invalidation

968 rials

The levels on the chart

Since writtenup3.0%

Conclusion

The bearish view continues with more caution: no level broke today, the price remains below the 932 resistance and 968 invalidation, but the 2.93% gain tracked the main index rebound more than any bank-specific improvement. I put roughly 45% probability on the close staying below 932 through the stated horizon and resuming its decline; a sustained move above 968 would drop this view.

The evidence

  • Today's closing price (14 Mehr 1405) for BSDR rose 2.93% to 914 rials; this bounce follows three straight declining sessions (from 935 to 888 rials) and still sits below the last card's 932 resistance and 968 invalidation level.
  • Buyer strength is 2.07 and individual net flow was positive at 28.3 million shares, but today's volume (877 million shares) is clearly below the monthly average (2,692 million shares); the three-part test is not fully confirmed.
  • The main index rose 2.40% today, and much of BSDR's gain tracked that broad market bounce rather than a bank-specific improvement.
  • The risk-free rate reached 42.29% on 5 Mehr 1405 (30-day average 41.73%), up from 40.73% on 15 Shahrivar; this trend raises the opportunity cost of BSDR's mandated lending.
  • BSDR's headline P/E is 182.8 versus the banking-sector average of 5.17 (14 Mehr 1405); this figure is distorted by a very low EPS (5 rials) and is not directly comparable with the sector.

If it holds

If the closing price stays below the 932-rial resistance, a renewed decline toward the 852-rial support becomes likely again.

If it breaks

If the closing price stabilizes above 968 rials, the bearish view is dropped and the stance shifts toward neutral or bullish.

What to watch

Watch the risk-free rate's path, BSDR's volume against its monthly average, and the quarterly financial statements and Money and Credit Council decisions.

Every call on this symbol

19 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written

  1. 6 October 13:49BearishBSDR rose 2.93% to 914 rials; no level broke, and the bearish view continues with greater caution914 rialsup3.0%
  2. 5 October 13:34BearishVabsader: another 2.2 percent drop takes it to 888 rial; only 8 rial left to the 880 support881 rialsup3.7%
  3. 4 October 13:36BearishVabsader's close broke below the 932 rial support and closed at an unmatched sell queue; bearish view strengthened907 rialsdown2.9%
  4. 4 October 08:40BearishVbsader; auctions for transferring surplus assets ended without result and the closing price reached around the 932-rial support937 rialsdown3.2%
  5. 30 September 13:35BearishVebsader's one-day rebound: closing price reached 963 rial but the 968-rial resistance has still not broken973 rialsdown3.7%
  6. 29 September 13:37BearishVebsader resumes three-session decline; now less than one percent from the 932 rial support target939 rialsup3.6%
  7. 29 September 08:56BearishVabsader reversed for three sessions, but a yield of half a percent still does not justify itself against a risk-free rate of 42.5 percent964 rialsdown2.6%
  8. 21 September 11:43BearishThe EPS for the Vebsader (وبصادر) board is 5 rial, and the price-to-earnings ratio is 194; a yield of half a percent against a risk-free rate of 41 percent965 rialsdown0.1%
  9. 20 September 11:40BearishThe 1,006 rial level went, exactly the risk I wrote yesterday, and behind it is a 0.73 percent operating margin994 rialsdown2.9%
  10. 19 September 11:04NeutralNeither of the two conditions I had written down myself for turning bearish has occurred, so I remain neutral and I am not moving the 1,006 rial threshold1,023 rialsdown2.8%
  11. 16 September 09:52NeutralThe risk we wrote ourselves yesterday happened exactly: the share opened at 1,068 rial and our bearish call is invalidated1,047 rialsdown2.3%
  12. 15 September 10:34BearishEPS of 5 rial and P/E of 207 in a group averaging 5.7: today's buy queue does not shrink this gap1,037 rialsup1.0%