AHRM Stays About 27% Below NAV and the 19 October Reading Is Void; a 6% Band From 7 November Cuts the Fastest Possible Close of the Gap From 9 Sessions to 6 (Saturday 24 October 2026)

The leveraged fund AHRM traded at an intraday closing price of 67,668 rials at 17:32 Tehran time on Saturday 24 October 2026 (2 Aban 1405), while its redemption price (NAV per unit) at the same hour was 93,387 rials: 27.5% below NAV. Two weeks earlier, on 11 October, the gap was 18 to 20%, and our reading was that AHRM would stay above 71,600 rials through the end of Aban; that reading is invalidated. Today the securities regulator announced a package, part of which has a date, and the question here is whether that part, a 6% price band, can close the gap.

Background

A leveraged fund is a tradable fund in which ordinary unit holders' money increases the tradable units' exposure to the underlying assets. The fund computes the redemption price from the value of its portfolio, while the board price is set by buyers and sellers; the distance between the two is the "bubble", and when the price is lower it is a negative bubble. According to AHRM's audited financial statements for the fiscal year ended 22 September 2026 (Codal, tracing number 1604639), net assets were 409,468,856 million rials against 169,590,262 million a year earlier, and 402,426,733 million of the 428,985,107 million rials in total assets, 93.8%, sat in shares and pre-emptive rights. Hence NAV responds to changes in the value of its holdings; fixing NAV in a calculation is a scenario rather than a forecast.

The gap's path over the past month: 19.6% on 27 September (Sedaye Bourse), 18 to 20.5% on 11 October (our earlier report), 25.15% on 17 October (Sedaye Bourse) and about 27% today. At 13:17 today Sedaye Bourse put AHRM at about 28%; the difference from the readings at 17:32 reflects the hour and the price basis.

Numbers of the day

• TSETMC, 24 October 2026, 17:31 to 17:32: redemption price 93,387 rials, issue price 94,714, intraday closing price 67,668 and last trade 68,530. These figures change until the day settles.
• Computed gap: 27.54% below redemption price at the intraday closing price and 26.62% at the last trade (1 minus price divided by 93,387). The price would have to rise 38% to reach redemption price, because the base in that calculation is the price.
• 11 October at 10:21 (TSETMC, cited in our earlier report): price 78,335 and redemption price 98,543 rials; since that hour the price is down 13.6% and the redemption price 5.2%.
• AHRM closes: 78,976 rials on 13 October, 70,954 on 18 October, 68,782 on 21 October (AHRM page on Sahmino). Since 13 October the price is down 14.3% against today's intraday running close, while the Tehran Stock Exchange main index went from 8,460,497 to 8,044,630 points, down 4.9%.
• Individual investors' net buying in AHRM over four sessions (19, 20, 21 and 24 October): minus 7.8, 8.6, 41.3 and 13.1 million units, about 70.8 million units in total and roughly 489 billion tomans of net selling; today's value is estimated as volume times closing price.

In Sahmino's screen (24 October, about 17:30, each fund's last trade against nightly NAV), the eight leveraged funds trade this far below NAV:

On 11 October the same eight funds sat 9.8 to 19.1% below NAV; today it is 20.7 to 26.6%. Across the whole fund group, 22 symbols trade more than 5% below NAV in Sahmino's screen on 24 October. It has 2,085 instruments in its universe, but only 333 with a NAV gap reading; a missing value does not pass this condition.

Drivers

Ali Niazi, the securities regulator's deputy for supervision of financial institutions, told SENA on 24 October 2026 that the regulator's board had approved a four-part package for leveraged funds (reported by Boursenews): adding a market-maker to the funds' structure; changing the basis of managers' performance fees; setting the minimum and maximum return of ordinary units from the weighted average monthly return of the five largest fixed-income tradable funds by net assets, reviewed every six months; and widening the price band of tradable units from 4% to 6%. Only the last part has a date: Saturday 7 November 2026 (16 Aban 1405) on the Tehran Stock Exchange and Farabourse. The details of the first two are to be communicated to fund managers later, and the report gives no date for them.

The band is a speed limit, and this is arithmetic, not a forecast. If NAV stays constant and the price reaches the band ceiling every session, 67,668 rials at a 4% band is about 76,117 after 3 sessions and the gap falls below 20%, but closing the whole gap takes 9 sessions (1.04 to the power 9 is 1.42 and 1.04 to the power 8 is 1.37, so eight is not enough). With a 6% band the same two milestones are 2 sessions and 6 sessions (1.06 to the power 6 is 1.42). The 38% distance from price to NAV is not closed in one session in either case.

Outlook

Three risks are clear. First, the band cuts both ways: 6% up is also 6% down, and NAV responds to the fund's shareholdings; the main index fell about 1.6% on 24 October. Second, individual investors were net sellers in all four recent sessions; while net selling continues, a wider ceiling does not bring buyers by itself. Third, the market-maker and fee changes are still undated, so a mechanism to absorb supply is for now a promise.

On the other side, a gap of around 20% was seen this month (11 October), and NRJF's manager had told Bourse24 earlier that its gap sometimes exceeded 5 to 8% and in some periods even 10%. At today's redemption price a 20% gap means a price of 74,710 rials and a 30% gap means 65,371. The price of 67,668 is about 9.4% below 74,710 and 3.5% above 65,371; both levels move with the daily redemption price, and the gap itself is the definition. An entry is worth examining where the gap is at least 25% (up to 70,040 rials at today's redemption price), the target is a return to a 20% gap, and the invalidation is a gap wider than 30%. The Sahmino desk has no recorded call on AHRM; this is the report's own reading, with no measured sample behind it.

Conclusion

The 11 October reading ("AHRM stays above 71,600 rials through the end of Aban") is invalidated: the 18 October close was 70,954 and the 21 October close 68,782 rials, and the redemption price also fell below 95,951, to 93,387 rials. The 6% band only removes the speed limit and will not close the gap without buyers; our new reading: AHRM's gap to redemption price narrows to below 20% by 21 December 2026. Condition: the 6% band takes effect on 7 November and NAV stays above 88,000 rials. Horizon: by 21 December 2026. Invalidation: a close with a gap of more than 30% below that day's redemption price. Reading taken 24 October 2026 at 17:32.

What to track

In Sahmino's screener set the group to "fund", set the NAV gap condition to "below minus 5%" and sort by the gap; on 24 October 22 funds passed that filter. The pages for AHRM, NRJF and JHSH show redemption price and gap side by side. Track whether the 6% band actually operates on 7 November and read the eventual text on market-making separately; neither a promise nor a trading band is itself a buyer.