Retail Investors Sold 2.41 Trillion Tomans of Mobarakeh Steel in Two Sessions, but Sahmino Has a 4,693-Rial Buy Target (23 October 2026)

Individual investors sold a net 2.41 trillion tomans of Mobarakeh Steel shares on 20 and 21 October 2026, and the share closed at 4,220 rials on 21 October, down from 4,540 rials on 14 October. The six-month accounts arrived on 22 October, after those sessions, reporting net profit up 133% from the comparable period. Sahmino's desk nevertheless had a buy stance on FOLD for the 21 October session. Tehran's next opening is Saturday 24 October at 09:00 local time: did the sellers anticipate a weakness in the accounts, or is the new earnings base an opportunity?

Background

Mobarakeh Steel Company trades on Tehran's main exchange. Its capitalisation at the 21 October closing price was about 817 trillion tomans. In Sahmino's 23 October nightly screen of basic-metals equities with positive trailing P/E and capitalisation of at least 30 trillion tomans, 15 qualified; FOLD ranked second by size, behind MSMI at about 4,162 trillion tomans. One reason the filing matters is the denominator in the valuation: the exchange's P/E still uses the published 2025-26 annual earnings of 518 rials a share and reports 8.15 at the 21 October close of 4,220 rials. Its industry comparator was 15.08 in the 23 October nightly profile.

The numbers

The following filed amounts come from the unaudited, standalone six-month financial statements to 22 September 2026, published on 22 October under Codal tracking number 1612323. The document prints figures in millions of rials: 10,000,000 million rials equal one trillion tomans.

• Sales: 250.9 trillion tomans, against 160.9 trillion in the restated prior-year half; an increase of 56%. Gross profit was 74.9 versus 48.4 trillion, giving gross margins of about 29.9% and 30.1%, respectively. Revenue grew, but the gross margin did not expand.
• Profit: operating profit was 68.0 versus 41.7 trillion tomans, up 63%; net profit was 59.2 versus 25.4 trillion, up 133%. The new half-year profit is 59% of the audited full-year 2025-26 profit of 100.3 trillion tomans.
• What drove the increase: pretax profit rose by 39.0 trillion tomans. About 26.3 trillion came from higher operating profit, 14.4 trillion from the shift in other non-operating income and expense from negative 2.5 to positive 11.9 trillion, offset by roughly 1.7 trillion of additional finance costs. Operating profit generated about two-thirds of the pretax increase.
• Per share: the six-month earnings figure was 306 rials versus 131 in the prior-year half. The reconstructed trailing amount is the audited annual 518 plus the new half 306 minus the comparable 131, or about 693 rials a share. Sahmino's calculation is 692.9 rials.
• Valuation, using the 21 October close of 4,220 rials: the exchange's 8.15 P/E on 518-rial earnings contrasts with Sahmino's 6.09 on reconstructed trailing 693-rial earnings, rounded. Sahmino's 23 October rebuild also gives P/B of 2.18, EV/EBITDA of 7.08 and trailing ROE of 35.8%. Of the 15 equities on the defined screen, FOLD was third-lowest by trailing P/E after ALIR (4.20) and FLBZ (6.05). This is a ranking of that screen, not all listed shares.

Catalysts and conflict

Cash against profit. The same standalone filing prints net operating cash inflow of 47.7 trillion tomans for the six months, compared with 45.8 trillion a year earlier. The current inflow is about 81% of net profit, versus about 180% in the previous half and about 87% for full-year 2025-26. This is not proof that 81% of a particular sale was collected. Trade and other receivables rose 79.8 trillion tomans, prepayments and orders 53.5 trillion, and inventories 38.4 trillion between 20 March and 22 September 2026: combined, about 171.7 trillion, roughly 2.9 times half-year profit. Trade payables rose 107.5 trillion and customer advances 32.3 trillion, together about 139.9 trillion. A substantial portion of working-capital growth has therefore been funded by liabilities. Interest-bearing borrowings were about 99.6 trillion tomans against 374.8 trillion of equity; the current ratio was 1.47.

The sellers. On 20 October, retail investors sold a net 1.24 trillion tomans; on 21 October, another 1.17 trillion, according to Sahmino's recorded exchange flow. On the latter session, they accounted for roughly 24% of shares bought and 81% of shares sold, while institutions bought 3.69 billion shares and sold 0.92 billion. Over the five sessions through 21 October the retail net sale was about 3.71 trillion tomans. Institutional purchases are not automatically informed buying: mandates, fund redemptions and support transactions can drive them. These trades occurred before the accounts were published, so the first price response to the filing is still to come.

Price. The 4,220-rial close on 21 October stood 7.0% below the traded 52-week high of 4,540 rials touched on 14 October. The 21 October price band ran from 4,210 to 4,470 rials. Tehran's main index lost 1.19% that session and ended near 8,173,767 points. Neither a falling board nor the published cash numbers alone tells us how Saturday's open will trade.

Outlook

Sahmino's desk entered a buy stance for FOLD on 21 October 2026, with a 4,220-rial reference, a 4,693-rial target and a 4,147-rial invalidation over 15 sessions. Its counted stance has no separate calibrated sample and was computed early on 22 October, before the new filing appeared. A flow-turn signal filed on 19 October carries the target, with a 73.3% measured hit estimate and a 67.5% lower bound; the random-entry control for the same level and regime is 55.6%. Its entry limit is 4,488 rials and its reward-to-risk reading at the 4,230-rial last trade was 5.59. Across the desk's entire settled record, 917 of 2,042 stances reached their targets (44.9%), 1,012 were invalidated and 113 expired; of 5,866 settled signals, 3,470 hit (59.2%), 2,263 invalidated and 133 expired. The signal arose in a falling, volatile market regime. A separate set of 538 rising, calm-regime flow-turn observations reached targets in 399 cases (74.2%); that different regime must not be passed off as the record of this particular setup.

The 21 October close of 4,220 rials is 1.8% above the invalidation, using the invalidation as the percentage base, and 10.1% below the target, using the target as the base. One full 3% band move from the previous close could reach about 4,093 rials, beneath the invalidation. If, as a purely arithmetic scenario rather than a forecast, trailing earnings were only twice the latest six-month 306-rial figure, the P/E at 4,220 rials would be about 6.9, compared with the exchange's 8.15 before the filing.

In the Sahmino screener, select basic metals, positive trailing P/E and market value of at least 30 trillion tomans; sort by trailing P/E. The FOLD instrument page carries its quote and daily flow.

Conclusion

The two days of retail selling preceded the filing, which does not itself vindicate those sales: profit rose 133%, about two-thirds of the pretax increase came from operating profit, and operating cash inflow equals about 81% of net profit. The reconstructed trailing P/E is 6.1 instead of 8.1 on the old earnings base, while the invalidation sits close to price. Sahmino desk call: FOLD to reach 4,693 rials from 4,220 within 15 sessions; entry remains valid up to 4,488 rials as long as the daily close stays at or above 4,147 rials. A daily close below 4,147 rials invalidates the reading. Based on the 21 October 2026 close; reviewed 23 October.

What to track

• At the Saturday 24 October reopening, a price above the 4,488-rial entry limit ends this signal's entry window; a daily close below 4,147 invalidates its stance.
• The individual and institutional flow on the first three sessions after the results, displayed on the instrument page.
• The next monthly activity and nine-month accounts: receivables and prepayments relative to sales, and whether operating cash flow remains at least 80% of net profit.