Iran Market Pulse: Saturday Morning, 25 July 2026; Global Gold Slid $100 from Its Record, but Domestic Gold Rose

The new market week opens on a split screen. Globally, the war-risk premium that last week drove gold to a $4,150 record and oil toward $98 is draining away; as of Saturday morning, 3 Mordad 1405 (25 July 2026), spot gold traded near $4,050 an ounce, about $100 below that record. Yet Iran's domestic market rose on Friday, 2 Mordad, against the global trend: a gram of 18-karat gold reached roughly 18.9 million toman and the Emami coin traded near 189 million toman. That "global down, domestic up" divergence is the day's most important story.

Today's snapshot (as of Saturday morning, 3 Mordad 1405 / 25 July 2026)

Today's headlines

• Brent crude fell nearly 4% on Friday, 2 Mordad (24 July), to settle near $96.8; West Texas Intermediate lost about 3% to around $89.3. Per global market coverage, the main driver was reports that Pakistan, with China's backing, is pushing to revive US-Iran talks, which trimmed the Strait of Hormuz risk premium.
• Spot gold stood near $4,050 by Saturday morning, about $100 below this week's $4,150 record; expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve and a firmer dollar (the dollar index near 101.5) drove the pullback.
• In the domestic market, and against the global trend, gold and coin prices rose on Friday, 2 Mordad; a gram of 18-karat gold reached about 18.9 million toman. That rise reflects the weekend premium and the domestic exchange rate more than the global trend.
• Wall Street closed a volatile week lower; on Friday the Nasdaq fell 0.64% to 24,976 under pressure from chip stocks, while the S&P 500 was near flat (7,412) and the Dow Jones rose 0.46%.
• Crypto retreated on Friday under pressure from higher US Treasury yields; Bitcoin reached about $64,000 and Ethereum around $1,857.

Currency

The currency market opens the week calmly. As of the close on Thursday, 1 Mordad, the free-market dollar was near 193,000 toman with no notable swing over the past few days; its one-month trend is still up, roughly 19% above a month ago, but the recent week's momentum has cooled. The remittance dollar at Iran's Currency and Gold Exchange Center stood around 151,400 toman (sell), so the gap between the free-market dollar and the Exchange Center rate remains about 42,000 toman, a spread that says more about the market's split than the price itself.

Why it matters: When a geopolitical risk premium deflates, pressure on the exchange rate usually eases too; the dollar holding steady alongside falling oil and global gold suggests the market is, for now, taking the de-escalation scenario seriously. That reading is fragile and hangs on the next negotiation headline.

Gold and coin

This is the heart of today's story. While spot gold sits near $4,050, about $100 below the week's record, domestic gold rose on Friday, 2 Mordad, with a gram of 18-karat gold reaching about 18.9 million toman. The Emami coin traded around 189 million toman and the coin premium held near 4 million toman.

Why the divergence: The domestic gold price is the product of two numbers, the global ounce and the domestic exchange rate. When the global ounce falls but the domestic conversion rate and weekend demand premium tick up, the net can turn positive. Put simply, part of the global drop was this time offset by the domestic exchange rate. For an Iranian buyer, "global gold falling" does not necessarily mean cheaper gold at home; the difference has to be sought in the exchange rate.

Stocks

The Tehran Stock Exchange closes the week on a point of strength and reopens today. The last trading session, Wednesday 31 Tir, was the second green day in a row; the main index closed around 4.884 million points and had risen more than 7,000 points in the opening minutes of that day. Market breadth was positive, with about two-thirds of symbols trading in the green; the refining, pharmaceutical, and food groups drew the most buyer interest.

Why it matters: The bourse had lagged the parallel market (currency and gold) in recent weeks, and these two green sessions are the first sign of a gradual return of demand. With the regional tension easing and the dollar holding steady, today's question is whether Wednesday's green tone continues on the week's first day or the market pauses to consolidate. The large Foolad Mobarakeh symbol remains halted and is one of the key variables among the coming re-openings.

Crypto

The global crypto market pulled back slightly on Friday under pressure from rising US Treasury yields. Bitcoin reached about $64,000 (down roughly 1% over 24 hours) and Ethereum around $1,857; that level is a touch below the roughly $65,650 seen on Friday midday. At home, the Tether rate still mirrors the free-market dollar and tracks its moves; the mild global crypto dip carries no fresh message for the domestic trader for now, beyond a cautious global risk appetite.

Iron and steel

The steel market was quiet and thin on news over the weekend. On the factory board, Arian Foolad's 10mm rebar (A3) was recorded near 70,400 toman per kilogram (2 Mordad), with the 12mm and 14mm sizes slightly lower. With the Iran Mercantile Exchange closed for the weekend, this market's main drivers, the exchange rate and global steel prices, are calm for now. The re-opening of the large Foolad symbol and possible new IME offerings in the days ahead will be this week's key signals.

Cars

The car market was also subdued with no official weekend trading, and no fresh price news that could be corroborated across multiple sources was recorded. The direction of the car market in the coming days depends above all on a calm exchange rate and pricing-policy news (the Competition Council and the Ministry of Industry, Mine, and Trade); as long as the dollar is calm, expectations of a price jump in the market margin stay muted.

Building materials

The building-materials market was quiet over the weekend too. Cement and base-material prices mostly track seasonal construction demand and energy costs, and with no fresh IME offering, no notable change was reported. The recent multi-week trend of a relative decline in cement prices remains the framework for this market.

Regional and global backdrop

The main driver this weekend was the deflating of the regional risk premium. Brent crude fell nearly 4% on Friday, 24 July, to settle near $96.8, and WTI dropped about 3% to around $89.3; the common factor was reports of Pakistan, with China's support, pushing to revive Iran-US talks. Spot gold was near $4,050 and the dollar index (DXY) near 101.5. On Wall Street, Friday's Nasdaq fell 0.64% to 24,976, the S&P 500 held near flat at 7,412, and the Dow Jones rose 0.46%. In the neighborhood, the US dollar traded near 47.3 Turkish lira and the dollar-to-yuan parity was near 6.77; both currencies are channels for Iran's imports and indirect trade, and their relative calm helps keep import costs steady.

The takeaway

Today's message is one sentence: global gold slid from its record, but gold in Iran's market did not get cheaper. This divergence is a reminder that the price of domestic assets is tied to the exchange rate as much as to the global ounce. As long as the dollar is calm and the negotiation path is unclear, the market hangs between two forces: global de-escalation pulling prices down, and the domestic currency anchor holding them up. The one thing to remember: this week, keep your eye on the exchange rate, not just the global-ounce headline.

What to watch today

• The Tehran Stock Exchange re-opening on the week's first day: will the past two sessions' green tone continue? Track retail (haqiqi) money in and out.
• Any fresh headline on the Iran-US negotiation path; this variable has the most direct effect on oil, gold, and currency expectations.
• The path of the global gold ounce and the dollar index in the first hours of the new week's global markets.
• A possible re-opening of the Foolad Mobarakeh symbol and new IME offerings.
• Follow the week's economic-events calendar on the Sahmino market calendar.

This report is solely a review of market data and is not buy or sell advice. Figures carry a reference time and may change in the hours ahead.