Iran Market Pulse: Thursday Midday, July 16, 2026; Global Gold Slips Below $4,050 as the Free-Market Dollar Holds Its 188,000-Toman Record

When the Tehran Stock Exchange is dark for the weekend, the market speaks with one voice: the global markets that do not observe a Saturday or Friday. At midday on Thursday, 25 Tir 1405 (16 July 2026), those markets made the news. Spot gold, which had touched a near $4,080 peak on Tuesday, pulled back to around $4,040; Bitcoin slid from a three-week high above $65,000 to $64,554 and Ether fell to about $1,780, while Brent crude held near $86 without spiking. The shared message of these figures is one thing: despite the naval blockade and the effective halt of shipping through Hormuz, global capital is pricing this conflict as short and contained.

At home, the domestic market says something else. The free-market dollar is parked at its all-time record near 188,250 toman, and gold and coins have kept the record levels of Wednesday's close. Today's real point is the number few people are watching: when global gold gets cheaper yet domestic gold and the coin premium stay elevated, the price engine in Tehran is no longer the "global ounce," it is fear. This report is the midday picture of the live markets and a look at the variables ahead this weekend.

Today at a glance (latest figures)

All figures carry a time stamp and are in Tehran time. Because the bourse is closed today and tomorrow, equity figures refer to Wednesday's close, while the global and crypto figures, which have no weekly break, were updated at midday Thursday. Live domestic prices are on the Sahmino prices page.

Today's headlines

• Global gold pulls back: after touching a near $4,080 peak on Tuesday, the gold ounce eased to around $4,040 by midday Thursday, so just as the domestic market sets records, its global driver has cooled a little (based on global-market data and an EcoIran report).
• Hormuz, only a handful of ships: per a Bloomberg report (15 July), only a few vessels have crossed the Strait of Hormuz in recent days, a waterway through which roughly a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade normally passes. The US naval blockade has been in effect since 14 July.
• Oman's draft plan: on the diplomatic front, Oman has prepared a draft plan to manage traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and Abbas Araghchi pursued the same matter in a meeting with his Omani counterpart; Qatar and Pakistan remain the lead mediators (per international news agencies and the daily Shargh).
• A listless crypto market: Bitcoin, which days earlier had seen a three-week high above $65,000 on soft US inflation data, slipped 0.7% to $64,554 by midday Thursday, and Ether retreated to about $1,780.
• The Fed rate shadow: the oil jump driven by the Hormuz tension is keeping US inflation fears alive, and a bet on a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September meeting is still on the table; that expectation supports upward pressure on the global dollar.

Currency

The currency market is spending the weekend in wait-and-see mode. The free-market dollar, which had jumped 2.22% to an all-time record on Wednesday, is trading around 188,250 toman at midday Thursday, effectively at that same ceiling. The Exchange Center remittance rate is still around 149,897 toman, leaving the gap between the official and free-market rates at roughly 25%. Live rates are on the currency prices page.

Why: the main engine of this week's jump was the security uncertainty after the blockade resumed, which kept hedging demand for foreign currency high. Now that the dollar has reached a record, the market is mostly waiting for a fresh catalyst: any signal from Oman's draft plan and the Doha contacts could set the path for the days ahead. This is observation, not a buy or sell recommendation.

Gold and coin

Domestic gold and coins have kept Wednesday's record figures: 18k gold per gram at 18,360,300 toman and the Emami coin at 184,995,000 toman. The Bahar Azadi coin traded around 180 million toman, the half-coin near 96 million and the quarter-coin near 54.6 million toman. A mithqal of gold is around 79.5 million toman. Figures are on the gold prices page.

Why this picture matters: the key point is the Emami coin premium, which on Wednesday jumped about 25% in a single day to around 6,271,000 toman. The premium (hobab) is the gap between the coin's market price and the intrinsic value of its metal; when that gap jumps, a buyer is willing to pay extra just to hold something physical. Now set that against today's pullback in the global ounce: gold's external driver has cooled a little, yet inside the country safe-haven demand has stayed hot.

Stocks

The Tehran Stock Exchange has no session today or tomorrow. The latest picture is Wednesday's 24 Tir close: TEDPIX fell 0.63% to 4,893,834 points and stayed below the 4.92-million and 5-million psychological marks. At the end of Tuesday 23 Tir, real-money outflow had reached minus 3,275 billion toman.

Why: last week's selling pressure combined rotation of money from equities into parallel markets with uncertainty over the reopening timetable for war-damaged symbols. The main gauge is how the index behaves in Saturday's first session: whether the stock market reads the calm of global markets or the record fear of the parallel market.

Crypto

The global crypto market was listless at midday Thursday. Bitcoin was down a slight 0.7% at $64,554 (about 12.16 billion toman) and Ether, after giving back its recent gain, sat near $1,780. The domestic tether rate is around 188,500 toman, effectively level with the free-market dollar. The perennial note for the Iranian audience is that a crypto price in toman contains two variables at once: the global dollar price and the domestic dollar rate; that is what turns tether into a mirror of the exchange rate, and today it kept it near the dollar's record.

Iron and steel

In the physical steel market, the latest confirmed prices are from Wednesday 24 Tir: factory-gate ribbed rebar (an Aryan Foolad sample) at about 66,820 toman per kilogram in size 10 and about 65,550 toman in size 12. Domestic steel prices feed off two drivers: the exchange rate, which lifts production cost, and the trend in global steel and iron-ore prices. With the dollar settled at a fresh record, the price floor in the steel market has stayed high, and next week's offerings and cleared prices on the commodity exchange will be the main gauge of the trend.

Cars

The car market had no fresh, confirmed price event over the weekend and is mostly driven by two variables: the dollar settling at its record near 188,000 toman, which keeps the floor under free-market car prices high, and factory-pricing decisions (the Competition Council and the Ministry of Industry) that set the gap between factory and market price (the market margin). Until a fresh official announcement, this market stays largely a function of the exchange rate.

Building materials

In building materials, on the latest figures, a ton of bulk Type 2 Portland cement (a Tehran Cement sample) was around 4,014,000 toman (14 Tir). The main driver here is seasonal construction demand and energy cost, and it usually lags the currency jump. With power cuts having begun in some regions, energy cost is a variable to watch.

Regional and global backdrop

The global picture today held a meaningful contradiction. Brent crude, under the pressure of the Hormuz tension, stayed near $86 and close to a one-month high, and WTI traded around $80; the Hormuz restrictions have kept the oil floor high but have not sent it spiking. At the same time, the global gold ounce eased from Tuesday's near $4,080 peak to around $4,040, and global equities and crypto were calm. The global dollar index also stayed near its recent highs, feeding off expectations of a more hawkish Fed. In Iran's neighborhood, the regional currencies (the Turkish lira, the Chinese yuan and the Iraqi dinar) were quiet, and the main channel of impact on Tehran remains the swings in oil, the global dollar and global gold.

Why this divergence matters: global gold's pullback and Brent's failure to spike, despite the effective halt of shipping through Hormuz, mean global capital is pricing this conflict as short and limited and does not believe in a "full closure of Hormuz." The domestic market, by keeping a heavy coin premium, says the opposite. Both pictures cannot stay right at once.

What to watch today and this weekend

The most important variable is the path of diplomacy: the fate of Oman's draft plan to manage Hormuz traffic and any signal from the Doha contacts feed directly into the exchange rate and gold. Globally, the path of the gold ounce after today's pullback, the oil price and any fresh Fed signal on the September rate matter. Domestically, watch how the Tehran market reacts in Saturday's first session, news of the next gold-ingot auction at the Exchange Center and its effect on the coin premium, and the commodity-exchange offerings. Scheduled events are on the Sahmino events calendar. This list is for observation only and carries no buy or sell recommendation.