Iran Market Pulse: Tuesday Morning, 21 July 2026; the bourse ends a seven-session losing streak with a green close as the dollar holds near 187,700 tomans

Tuesday morning, 21 July 2026 (30 Tir 1405). For weeks the market's top story has been the dollar's back-to-back records, but the number that truly turned the page yesterday was somewhere else: the Tehran Stock Exchange's main index. After seven consecutive down sessions and a roughly 10 percent correction, TEDPIX closed Monday 20 July up about 1.2 percent (nearly 58,000 points) at 4,813,503, ending a session in the green for the first time this cycle. It happened on a day when, unlike the previous week, the parallel market was calm: the free-market dollar, which had risen to around 194,000 tomans earlier in the week, settled near 187,700 tomans at Monday's close and has stayed little changed.

The one market that found fresh legs overnight was global gold: the ounce climbed back above the psychological 4,000 dollar line, up toward about 4,040 dollars. In short, today's picture is the mirror image of recent weeks: a green bourse, a calm currency, and rising global gold. The key question for today's session (which opens at 9 a.m.) is whether this rebound holds or, as on several recent occasions, fades.

Market snapshot (through Monday 20 July close and Tuesday 21 July morning)

Figures refer to the latest data recorded through Monday 20 July close and Tuesday 21 July morning; the bourse opens at 9 a.m. today and these numbers change through the day.

Today's headlines

• Per capital-market news agencies, TEDPIX closed Monday 20 July up about 58,000 points at 4,813,503, its first green session after seven straight declines; demand returned to banking, pharmaceutical, food, base-metals and cement groups.
• Per economic media, the exchange center's remittance dollar sell rate edged up to 150,915 tomans on Tuesday morning 21 July, while the free-market dollar held near 187,700, leaving the gap between the two rates at about 36,800 tomans.
• On the market calendar, a gold bullion auction is scheduled for today, Tuesday 21 July; its result can affect melt gold, coins and the coin premium.
• Per the auto market, Iran Khodro has announced a new round of instant sales of its models, in which the gap between factory and market prices remains the buyers' main focus.
• In global markets, spot gold climbed back above the 4,000 dollar line overnight, up toward about 4,040 dollars; bitcoin and ether also posted small gains.

Stocks: first green session after seven red days

TEDPIX, which had closed Sunday 19 July down about 22,000 points at 4,755,500, turned the page on Monday and finished up nearly 58,000 points (about 1.2 percent) at 4,813,503. This is the first green session after seven consecutive declines and a correction of nearly 10 percent. The over-the-counter index (IFX) stood near 37,866. Market reports point to returning demand in banking, pharmaceutical, food, base-metals and cement names, and easing selling pressure.

What is behind the rebound? Part of it is the technical nature of a market after a prolonged slide: when prices reach attractive levels and panic selling is exhausted, value and swing demand return. Part is tied to the relative calm in the currency and hopes for reduced risk via the Muscat talks. Still, one green session does not confirm the end of the downtrend: in recent sessions real-money outflow (around 4.8 trillion tomans on Saturday 18 July) had weighed on the market, and today's real test is the return of that money and holding the index level. That part is the "fact"; the continuation of the trend is "outlook" and depends on inflows through today's close.

Currency: relative calm, but the multi-rate gap persists

In the currency market, the free-market dollar, which had entered the 194,000-toman channel for the first time on Sunday 19 July, traded around 187,700 tomans at Monday's close and has stayed little changed this morning; the free-market euro stood near 214,700 tomans. On the official side, the exchange center's remittance dollar sell rate reached 150,915 tomans this morning (up about 0.15 percent), with the remittance euro near 172,200 and the remittance yuan at 22,291 tomans. That leaves the gap between the free and exchange-center rates at about 36,800 tomans, or nearly 24 percent.

Why it matters. This gap is a product of the multi-rate currency structure: part of demand is met through the cheaper official channel and the rest presses on the free market. The dollar's calm over the past two days likely reflects fading panic demand and hopes for a result from the Muscat table; but as long as geopolitical risk persists, inflationary expectations and hedging demand for currency stay alive, which is what keeps the current calm fragile.

Gold and coin: calm at home, global gold back above 4,000 dollars

In the gold and coin market, a gram of 18k gold stood near 18,184,000 tomans at Monday's close and a mesghal near 78,800,000 tomans; the Emami coin was little changed around 183,000,000 tomans and the half-coin near 93,000,000. The calmer exchange rate has left the domestic gold market subdued too.

The key point is the coin premium: the Emami coin premium reached about 6,000,000 tomans (near 3.4 percent of the coin's price). On the global side, the ounce climbed back above the psychological 4,000 dollar line overnight, up toward about 4,040 dollars. As long as the domestic dollar rate is calm, the move in global gold will be the most important external driver for domestic gold prices.

Crypto: small overnight gains

In the crypto market, bitcoin traded up nearly half a percent around 65,576 dollars and ether up about 1.2 percent near 1,923 dollars. The tether rate in the domestic market remains roughly level with the free-market dollar (about 187,700 tomans). A reminder: global crypto prices are measured in dollars and the toman price embeds the dollar rate, so part of the toman-denominated swing simply reflects the currency's move.

Steel

In the steel market, factory rebar rates were little changed; for example, size-10 Aryan Foulad rebar (A3) was quoted around 70,450 tomans and size-12 around 69,180 tomans per kilogram (factory rate, 20 July). This market watches two variables above all: the exchange rate, which sets landed cost and the export price floor, and the trend in global steel. The calmer currency has, in the short term, eased upward pressure on the market.

Cars: after currency-driven jumps, a gentler pace

In the auto market, after last week's heavy jumps that tracked the currency's records, the dollar's calm at the start of this week has softened the pace of price increases. Iran Khodro has also announced a new round of instant sales, whose model details and expected margins we have examined separately. The market margin (the gap between factory and open-market prices) remains high in the current inflationary environment and a direct function of the exchange rate.

Building materials

In the building materials market, cement prices were relatively stable; bulk Portland type-2 cement in Tehran was quoted around 4,014,000 tomans and bulk Abyek around 3,673,000 tomans per ton (20 July). The main drivers here are seasonal construction demand and energy costs, with the currency having an indirect effect.

Regional and global backdrop

In global markets, the main threads are gold's return above 4,000 dollars and the open Strait of Hormuz file. Per our latest data, Brent crude is trading around 88 dollars, with the risk premium from Hormuz tension keeping a floor under it; this variable reaches Tehran two ways: through the country's currency revenue and through the psychology of the domestic market. On global monetary policy, expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate path remain the most important external anchor for gold and the dollar.

Among neighbors and trade partners, the Chinese yuan rose about 0.24 percent this morning to 22,291 tomans at the exchange center (remittance sell) and traded near 27,680 tomans in the free market; the UAE dirham, one of Iran's main trade corridors, was quoted near 51,436 tomans and the Iraqi dinar near 143 tomans, while the Turkish lira was around 47 to the dollar (each lira near 3,990 tomans). The dirham and the yuan are two key channels for Iran's trade settlement, and their swings feed directly into the landed cost of imports.

What to watch today

• Whether the bourse rebound holds: can TEDPIX keep yesterday's green through today's session and draw real money back into the market; this is the main test of the trend's durability.
• Bullion auction: a gold auction is on the calendar for today, Tuesday 21 July; its result can affect melt gold, coins and the premium.
• The Muscat table: continued technical and political talks between Iran and Oman on two Strait of Hormuz corridors; any positive or negative headline feeds straight into oil and the currency.
• Global: the behavior of spot gold around the 4,000 dollar line, the path of Brent crude with Hormuz headlines, and Federal Reserve rate-path signals.
• For upcoming events see the Sahmino economic calendar.

This report is a news review of market conditions and is not buy or sell advice. Figures are timed and sourced and change through the day.