Iran Market Pulse: Saturday Midday, 25 July 2026; the Bourse Extends a Third Green Session, TEDPIX Near 4,894,000

The first half of the week's opening session tells one clear story: while everyone watches the dollar and gold, the number that actually moved today was in stocks. By around 11:00 a.m. Tehran time on Saturday, 3 Mordad 1405 (25 July 2026), mid-session, the TEDPIX index of the Tehran Stock Exchange was up about 0.2% (near 10,000 points) at roughly 4,894,000 points, extending a third consecutive green session; the over-the-counter Iran Farabourse index was up about 0.3%. In the same hours the parallel market was asleep: the free-market dollar held near 193,100 toman and the traded gram of gold was almost flat. That is today's headline: money is quietly rotating toward equities.

Today at a glance (around 11:00 a.m. Tehran, Saturday, 3 Mordad 1405 / 25 July 2026)

Today's headlines

• The Tehran bourse opened the week higher; by around 11:00 a.m. the main index was up about 0.2% near 4,894,000 points, logging a third straight green day.
• According to Reuters, Pakistan, in a China-initiated push, is exploring a path to revive US-Iran talks; within that effort Iran's Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni traveled to Islamabad on Thursday. Those reports eased the Strait of Hormuz risk premium on Friday.
• Brent crude, which had fallen nearly 4% on Friday, recovered about 0.7% this morning to around 96.8 dollars; WTI steadied near 89 dollars.
• Spot gold held near 4,053 dollars, about 100 dollars below this week's 4,150-dollar peak; fading odds of a September Fed cut and a US policy rate stuck at 3.75% are gold's current ceiling.
• Global crypto stayed cautious; bitcoin traded near 64,000 dollars, about 0.4% below yesterday.

Stocks

This is the heart of today's story. The last session, Wednesday 31 Tir, was a second consecutive green day that lifted the main index to around 4,884,000 points. Today, Saturday, the market kept the same track: the index opened positive and, by about 11:00 a.m., stood up roughly 0.2% near 4,894,000 points, with the Farabourse up about 0.3%. Breadth stayed positive, and buyer attention centered on the large commodity and refining groups.

Why it matters: the bourse had lagged the parallel market for weeks; three green sessions in a row are the first clear sign that demand is gradually returning to equities. The key point is the timing: with the exchange rate not jumping and the regional risk premium fading, some cautious liquidity is rotating back from gold and the dollar into shares. To judge how real the rotation is, watch not the headline index itself but its divergence from the equal-weight index and the net inflow of retail money; those tell you whether the gain is "deep" or is being pulled up by a handful of large names. Mobarakeh Steel's big symbol remains suspended and is one of the important variables in the days ahead.

Currency

The FX market opened the week asleep, and that calm is the bed on which the bourse's rally rests. The last recorded free-market dollar rate, at Thursday 23 July's close, was around 193,100 toman (up about 0.4% that day) and showed no material change in early trading today. The dollar remittance rate at Iran's Currency and Gold Exchange Center stayed around 151,400 toman (sell).

The number to watch is the gap between the two rates: the spread between the free-market dollar and the Exchange Center rate is still about 41,700 toman, meaning the free rate is nearly 28% above the official "agreed" rate. That gap, more than the price itself, signals the structural duality of the FX market: part of demand is met at the 151,400-toman rate and the rest must go to the 193,100-toman market. As long as the gap is open, any fresh headline on talks or FX policy can quickly land on the free rate. For now, though, the dollar's calm is exactly what has let the bourse breathe.

Gold & coin

The domestic gold and coin market was quiet today. The traded gram of 18-karat gold (sell) changed hands near 19,770,000 toman, essentially flat (about +0.03%). The Emami coin was little changed near 188,500,000 toman, and the coin premium held around 4 million toman. Globally, gold stood near 4,053 dollars, about 100 dollars below the week's record.

Why so calm: the price of domestic gold is the product of two numbers, the global ounce and the domestic exchange rate; when both are quiet, market gold marks time. What differs from this morning's report is that the weekend excitement has faded and the domestic market has moved closer to a new equilibrium. For the Iranian buyer the message is simple: as long as the dollar and the ounce are both calm, a price jump in gold looks unlikely.

Crypto

Global crypto stayed cautious. Bitcoin traded near 64,000 dollars, about 0.4% below 24 hours earlier, and ether held in a narrow range. The main pressure is the same rise in US Treasury yields and a relatively firmer dollar, which is capping global risk appetite. At home, the Tether rate still mirrors the free-market dollar, so today's calm dollar means a calm Tether too; there is no new message for the domestic trader beyond a still-cautious global mood.

Iron & steel

The steel market was little changed. On the factory board, Arian Foulad 10 mm rebar (A3) was recorded near 70,450 toman per kilogram (3 Mordad), with 12 and 14 mm sizes slightly lower near 69,000 toman. The market's main drivers, the exchange rate and global steel prices, are calm today, so the physical board showed no material move. Fresh Iran Mercantile Exchange offerings and a possible reopening of the big steel symbol will be this week's main signals for steel.

Cars

The car market was subdued in the week's early hours, with no fresh price news meeting a multi-source bar. Its direction in the days ahead depends above all on a calm exchange rate and pricing-policy news (the Competition Council and the Ministry of Industry); as long as the dollar is quiet, a jump in the market margin looks unlikely.

Building materials

Building materials also opened the week quietly. Cement and base-material prices mostly track seasonal construction demand and energy costs, and with no fresh Mercantile Exchange offering, no material change was reported. The recent several-week trend of a relative easing in cement prices remains this market's frame.

Regional & global backdrop

Today's global backdrop is the further calming of the same tension that shook markets last week. After falling nearly 4% on Friday, Brent crude rose about 0.7% this morning to around 96.8 dollars; the driver was reports of a Pakistan-and-China effort to revive US-Iran talks, which trimmed the Strait of Hormuz risk premium. Spot gold held near 4,053 dollars and the dollar index (DXY) stayed near 101.5; fading odds of a September Fed cut have kept the dollar firm and gold under a ceiling. In the neighborhood, at last week's close the US dollar was around 47.3 Turkish lira and near 6.77 Chinese yuan; both currencies are channels for Iran's imports and indirect trade, and their relative calm helps contain import costs.

The takeaway

Today's story is one sentence: today belonged to stocks, not the dollar. With the exchange rate asleep and the regional risk premium fading, some cautious money is rotating back from the parallel market into shares, and that rotation built the bourse's third green session. One thing to remember: whether the green holds depends less on the headline index than on two things, a calm dollar and genuine retail inflow. As long as both hold, equities have the floor.

What to watch today and this week

• The rest of today's live session to 12:30 p.m.: does the index hold its gain to the close, and does net retail money come in?
• The divergence between the main and equal-weight indices as a gauge of the rally's "depth".
• Any fresh headline on the US-Iran talks track; it has the most direct effect on oil, gold and FX expectations.
• A possible reopening of the Mobarakeh Steel symbol and fresh Mercantile Exchange offerings.
• Follow the week's economic events on the Sahmino market calendar; for this morning's read, see the Saturday pre-market pulse.

This report is a review of market data, not buy or sell advice. Figures carry a reference time and may change during the live session.