Iran Market Pulse: Wednesday Midday, 15 July 2026; the Tehran bourse stays red intraday as global gold slips from its $4,080 peak

Midday Wednesday, 15 July 2026 (24 Tir 1405); mid-session, the picture in Iran's markets is the familiar divergence, only deeper this time. The main Tehran Stock Exchange index (TEDPIX) traded down about 0.29% (roughly 14,350 points) near 4,910,330 by around 11:00 a.m., logging another red day, while the free-market dollar holds its record of 184,110 tomans and a gram of 18-karat gold sits near 17,891,000 tomans.

The fresh angle today, though, comes from beyond the borders. Spot gold, which had climbed to nearly $4,080 on Tuesday after softer-than-expected US inflation data, slipped to about $4,037 today. The reason is straightforward: the jump in oil prices on the back of the Strait of Hormuz tension has revived inflation fears and swung global bets from a Federal Reserve "pause" toward a rate "hike." In other words, the same engine that lifted domestic gold and coins overnight cooled a little this morning. That means the parallel-market rally is, for now, catching its breath at record levels rather than gathering fresh momentum.

Today's snapshot

Every figure is timestamped and sourced in the text; domestic live prices are Tehran time, based on Sahmino's prices and the latest free-market data. Free-market gold and coin quotes usually refresh from midday onward, so last night's figures are shown as a reference.

Today's headlines

• Global gold retreats from its peak: gold, which had reached about $4,080 on Tuesday, is trading near $4,037 today (down roughly 0.4%); the oil spike has pushed the market's odds of a September Fed rate hike to about 70% (per global gold and market data providers).
• The bourse is red again today: TEDPIX was down about 0.29% by mid-session and stayed below the 4.92-million mark, extending the real-money outflow that reached minus 3,275 billion tomans at the 23 Tir close (per Tejarat News and Ta'adol).
• The Exchange Center keeps auctioning gold bars: the Iran Currency and Gold Exchange Center held another in-person gold-bar auction this week, with a collateral deposit of 1 billion tomans per bar. The tool is used to manage physical gold demand and contain the coin premium (per the Exchange Center and economic media).
• Brent above $85: Brent crude edged up to about $85.9 a barrel and WTI near $80; the Strait of Hormuz restrictions continue to prop up a higher floor for oil (per global wire agencies).
• The dollar, double a year ago: today's free-market dollar is roughly double its level on the same day in 1404 (a year ago), and a gram of 18k gold is up about 10% in just the past month (per Fararu, based on market data).

Currency

The FX market has quieted at record levels today. The free-market dollar, which had risen 1.73% to 184,110 tomans in Tuesday's late trading, opened today at that same record and held its channel without a fresh jump. The "agreed" (tavafoqi) rate is effectively level with the open market, near 184,000 tomans. By contrast, the Exchange Center remittance rate (the official rate used for part of imports) stands at 149,897 tomans, meaning the gap between the remittance rate and the open market is still around 23%. This multi-rate spread is the coiled spring that has kept steady pressure on the live exchange rate for months; if you want to understand why Iran has several dollar rates, this explainer helps.

Why: political and security uncertainty after the recent tensions has kept hedging demand for foreign currency high and locked the floor at record levels. The notable point today is that with global gold cooling, the upward pressure on the dollar has eased for now. This is the "data reality"; anything said about where the trend goes next is observation, not advice to buy or sell.

Gold and coins

After last night's jump, the domestic gold and coin market is consolidating this morning. A gram of 18k gold is near 17,891,000 tomans and the Emami coin near 180,985,000 tomans (last night's close); the Emami coin premium is estimated at roughly 5 million tomans. To understand the structure of that premium, you can follow the coin price and gold price pages. Worth noting: 18k gold's one-month gain has reached about 10%, meaning gold's pace of appreciation over the past month has outrun many other assets.

Link to the global market: the main engine of the domestic gold price is the mix of the global ounce and the dollar rate. Today the ounce fell from Tuesday's $4,080 peak to about $4,037, because the oil spike and inflation fears pushed the market's expectations toward a more hawkish Fed and lifted real bond yields; that briefly dims gold's appeal. Domestically, the Exchange Center is trying to manage physical demand and prevent the premium from re-inflating by continuing its gold-bar auctions.

Stocks

In contrast to the gold market, the Tehran bourse opened Wednesday in the red too. TEDPIX was near 4,910,330 by around 11:00 a.m., down about 0.29% (roughly 14,350 points), and the live index stayed below the psychological 4.92-million mark; the Farabourse index, by contrast, was up a slight 0.14% at 38,349. This continues the pattern set at the 23 Tir close, when 3,275 billion tomans of real money left the market and about 51% of symbols were negative (per Tejarat News and Ta'adol).

Why: part of this slide is the ongoing rotation of money from equities into parallel assets (gold, coins, FX); when the daily return on gold and coins outruns stocks, retail investors take shelter in safer markets. Another, psychological factor is the uncertainty over when war-damaged symbols will reopen and the political ambiguity. This is cautious observation, not a firm forecast; the second half of today's session will be an important gauge for the rest of the week.

Crypto

The global crypto market firmed a little today. Bitcoin is trading up 0.27% near $64,635 (roughly 11.99 billion tomans), recovering part of the ground after Tuesday's dip to about $62,865. Ethereum is near $1,800. The domestic tether rate is around 185,360 tomans, a touch above the remittance dollar and close to the free-market dollar. The key point for Iranian readers is the one we always make: the toman price of crypto embeds two variables at once, the global dollar price and the domestic dollar rate.

Iron and steel

In the physical steel market, factory-gate ribbed rebar (the Arian Foulad sample) was around 66,820 tomans per kilogram in size 10 and about 65,550 tomans in size 12 (24 Tir), slightly higher than the previous day. Domestic steel prices are driven mainly by two things: the exchange rate, which raises production costs, and the trend in global steel and iron-ore prices. With the dollar locked at a fresh record, the price floor in the steel market has stayed elevated too. Offerings and cleared prices on the commodity exchange will be the main gauge of the steel trend this week.

Cars

The auto market had no fresh, confirmed price event today and is mostly waiting on two variables: the dollar's consolidation at the 184,000-toman record, which keeps the floor of the open-market car price high, and factory-pricing decisions (the Competition Council and the Ministry of Industry) that set the gap between the factory price and the market (the market margin). Until fresh official pricing news is published, this market largely remains a function of the exchange rate.

Building materials

In building materials, a ton of bulk Portland Type 2 cement (the Tehran Cement sample) was around 4,014,000 tomans and the Abyek sample about 3,673,000 tomans; a 50-kilogram bag ranged from 218,000 to 258,000 tomans depending on the brand (14 Tir). The main drivers here are seasonal construction demand and energy costs, and the trend usually moves with a lag relative to the FX jump.

Regional and global backdrop

In the global market, gold pulled back from Tuesday's $4,080 peak to about $4,037, while Brent crude was at $85.93 and WTI near $80 (24 Tir); the Strait of Hormuz restrictions continue to keep a higher floor under oil. The pivotal point today is the return of bets on Fed policy: although the US June inflation reading (3.5% annual, 2.6% core) was soft, the oil spike has revived inflation fears and pushed the odds of a September rate hike to about 70%. In global FX, the euro/dollar pair held at 1.1421 (24 Tir). In Iran's neighborhood, the Turkish lira held near 47.04 against the dollar and the Chinese yuan near 6.77, both little changed, while the dollar traded near 1,311 dinars in Iraq's market (13 July); regional currencies were calm today, and the main channel of impact on Tehran remains the moves in the global dollar and gold, which feed directly into the toman prices of gold, coins, and imported goods.

What to watch today

Through the close today, the most important domestic point is the second half of the bourse's reaction to the continued real-money outflow and the behavior of the free gold and coin market in the afternoon hours. Alongside that, watch for: results and cleared prices from commodity-exchange offerings (steel and cement), news of the next gold-bar auction at the Exchange Center, any fresh Central Bank statement on FX policy, and at the global level, the path of the gold ounce and oil prices and any fresh signal from the Federal Reserve. You can see scheduled events on the Sahmino events calendar. This list is for "watching" only and contains no advice to buy or sell.