Iran Radiator Revenue Doubled While Radiator Unit Sales Fell: Cash Collection Tests Sahmino's Target (Thursday 29 October 2026)

Iran Radiator's revenue doubled, but the number of radiators sold did not. The company, traded as RADI, reported standalone operating revenue of 24,132,700 million rials for the six months to 22 September 2026 against 11,393,120 million rials a year earlier. Its corrected monthly report shows fewer radiators sold in that period, so the increase came from realised prices and product mix. That leaves a second question for a prospective buyer: how much of the higher accounting profit has become cash?

In its corrected six-month filing published on 29 October, net profit rose to 3,527,108 million rials from 1,465,958 million rials in the restated comparative period, a gain of about 141%. Net operating cash flow for the same standalone period was negative 1,762,940 million rials. Sahmino's desk has a buy reading dated 28 October with a specified target and invalidation, which is a claim about price, not a claim that accounting earnings automatically turn into cash.

Background

Iran Radiator is a Tehran-listed automotive-parts company. In a material disclosure dated 23 August 2026, it said a Sapco agreement raised product prices by 36%, effective from the start of the financial year. It estimated the increase would add 1,035,368 million rials to revenue by year-end and noted the effect was already in its budget. That is an estimate, not a realised sales figure. The six-month increase in revenue, 12,739,580 million rials, is more than 12 times that year-end estimate, so attributing the entire increase to the Sapco agreement would be wrong. The comparison base was also weak: restated first-half revenue for the year to March 2026 was 11,393,120 million rials, down from 13,446,350 million rials in the comparable period a year earlier.

What the filings show

Amounts below are in million rials unless stated otherwise. The source is standalone, unaudited, six-month Codal filing 1620832 for the period ended 22 September 2026; the comparable period a year earlier is restated and audited. The original filing 1618064 carried the same revenue, profit and cash-flow readings, and the correction updated its notes and management commentary.

• Revenue increased from 11,393,120 to 24,132,700, about 112%. Gross profit rose from 2,325,344 to 6,086,533. Gross margin, gross profit divided by revenue, rose from about 20.4% to 25.2%. Operating profit increased from 1,790,610 to 4,733,171, and basic earnings per share from 199 to 480 rials. Finance costs rose from 2,843 to 348,676.
• Net operating cash flow was negative 1,762,940 against negative 641,463 in the corresponding period a year earlier. The audited year ended 20 March 2026 showed positive 678,570, implying a positive second half of 1,320,033 by subtraction (our calculation). A repeat of that reversal is a question, not an observed outcome.
• Trade and other receivables rose to 25,292,417 on 22 September from 16,358,829 on 20 March 2026, a 55% increase and about 105% of the half-year's revenue. Cash fell to 909,596 from 1,867,279; short-term borrowing rose to 1,018,897 from 139,682, with 963,252 of new borrowing in the period. Trade and other payables increased to 9,873,802 from 7,081,828.

The mechanism

In the corrected monthly report for the period to 22 September 2026, domestic sales of radiators totalled 676,938 units, versus 812,988 a year earlier, a decline of about 16.7%. Including exports, the count was 693,604 against 816,728 units, about 15% lower. Yet the reported average domestic price for this line rose from 7,637,595 to 22,279,290 rials per unit, about 2.9-fold, taking the line's sales from 6,209,273 to 15,081,698. Units multiplied by the average price reconcile with the sales amount, allowing for rounding. Because amount equals units times price, only a higher average price can produce growth when units fall. The line blends many radiator types, so part of the rise may be product mix, which the report does not isolate.

The company also resold purchased materials and parts for 8,855,655, about 37% of total sales. Monthly sales for September were 6,940,464, roughly twice the first five months' monthly average of 3,438,447, and September domestic radiator units of 170,827 were about 1.7 times that five-month average of 101,222. The first version of this monthly report gave the six-month total as 24,177,763; the correction, described by the company as a sales-invoice adjustment, replaced it with 24,132,700, which agrees with the income statement. The two versions should not be averaged.

Outlook

The cash test is concrete: receivables now exceed an entire half-year's revenue while operating cash was negative. Current assets of 34,301,681 divided by current liabilities of 15,478,462 give a current ratio of about 2.22, and interest-bearing debt is about 5% of equity of 19,652,074. The issue is the timing of collection rather than the ability to pay. The balance alone does not show which invoices are outstanding or whether any customer has defaulted.

Sahmino's trailing P/E is 4.23 on the 4,070-rial closing price of 28 October 2026 and trailing EPS of about 961 rials. That EPS is reconstructed from the audited year to March 2026 (681 rials), plus the latest six months (480) minus the same period a year earlier (199); it is not a column printed in the six-month letter. Sahmino's screener, last computed overnight into 29 October, found 27 automotive-parts names with a positive P/E and positive profit growth. RADI's 4.23 was the fourth lowest, behind three other names. Its trailing operating-cash-to-profit reading was negative 6.27%, while one peer in the same screen showed positive 81.91%. A low multiple is not the same thing as a short collection cycle.

The Sahmino desk's 28 October reading is buy from a 4,070-rial reference, with a 4,580.07-rial target and 3,959.93-rial invalidation over 15 sessions, in a falling, volatile regime. It carries no published probability or symbol-specific sample. Across all desk stances, 1,141 of 2,475 settled cases reached their targets, with 1,173 invalidated and 161 expired; for signals, 3,617 of 6,240. An open 20 October signal claims the same target with a 73.75% chance (68.05% lower bound) against 55.65% for a random entry in the same regime; these measure past signals and promise nothing about this one. The 28 October close of 4,070 rials is 11.1% below the target (measured against the target) and 2.8% above the invalidation (measured against the invalidation), a reward-to-risk of 4.6 by our arithmetic. It is also 16.4% below the 4,870-rial high printed on 10 October. Yesterday's desk call on KHFZ (target 3,003, invalidation 2,603) is still open: it closed at 2,735 rials on 28 October and the exchange has not traded since.

Conclusion

Price, not radiator volume, drove RADI's six-month sales growth. Earnings rose but the operating cash test remains open. Sahmino desk reading from the 28 October 2026 close: RADI reaches 4,580 rials within 15 sessions if its daily close stays above 3,960; the condition is that the daily close holds above 3,960 rials and the sales price is maintained; the horizon is 15 sessions from 28 October; a daily close below 3,960 rials invalidates the reading.

What to follow

In the next session, Saturday 31 October, compare the close with the target and invalidation on RADI's Sahmino page. Then check the October monthly report, not yet filed on Codal for this company, for radiator units and the average price, and the nine-month statements for receivables, borrowing and operating cash. To repeat the comparison in Sahmino's screener, select the automotive-parts industry, positive trailing P/E and positive profit growth, then display operating cash flow to net profit beside the multiple.