Razavi Yeast (RAVZ) Sits Nearly 15% Below Its High After a 3.6x Half-Year Profit; Q2 Earned 3% Less Than Q1 and Sahmino's Invalidation Is 24,697 Rials (Friday 30 October 2026)

Net profit of Razavi Yeast (RAVZ) for the six months to 22 September 2026 rose from 1,557 billion rials to 5,618 billion rials, 3.6 times as much, and operating cash flow covered 94% of it. Even so, the share closed lower for five sessions in a row, and the 28 October 2026 close of 24,900 rials sits 14.9% below the 29,250-rial high of 13 October. In those five sessions individual investors sold about 21.2 billion tomans net; on 28 October institutions bought 1.04 million shares and sold 90,000. The question is whether the sellers saw something the filing does not show, or whether the price has simply lagged the report. The exchange stays closed until Saturday 31 October at 09:00.

Background

RAVZ trades on the First Market of Farabourse in the food and beverages (excluding sugar) industry, and its market value at the 28 October close was about 6.4 trillion tomans (64,093 billion rials). Standalone net profit for fiscal 2025/26 (audited, year to 20 March 2026) was 5,074 billion rials; the 5,618 billion rials of the first half of the current year is already 111% of it. Sales for the seven months to 22 October 2026 are 14,835 billion rials, of which 56% is exports (8,333 billion rials, up 147% on the same seven months a year earlier); domestic sales are 6,502 billion rials, up 39%.

The numbers

Figures come from the standalone interim financial statements for the six months to 22 September 2026 (unaudited, Codal tracing number 1610229); the prior-year comparison column is marked "restated", and amounts are printed in millions of rials.

• Revenue and margin: operating revenue 12,807 billion rials against 6,757 billion (up 90%). Gross profit 6,139 against 2,185 billion rials; gross margin 47.9% against 32.3%.
• Profit: operating profit 6,346 against 1,862 billion rials. Of that, 929 billion rials (14.6%) is "other operating income", which was 51 billion rials a year earlier; the table does not say what drives the line. Net profit 5,618 against 1,557 billion rials; earnings per share 2,183 against 605 rials.
• Cash: net operating cash flow was 5,269 billion rials after 477 billion rials of tax paid (38 billion a year earlier), which is 94% of net profit. Purchases of fixed assets were 700 billion rials against 3,340 billion a year earlier.
• Quarters: first-quarter net profit (three months to 21 June 2026) was 2,855 billion rials (three-month statements, tracing number 1572476). The second quarter, by our subtraction, is 2,763 billion rials: 3.2% below the first quarter and 3.1 times the second quarter of the prior year (890 billion rials). Gross margin fell from 53.0% in the first quarter to 42.9% in the second.
• Ratios at the 24,900-rial close (28 October 2026): trailing twelve-month EPS of 3,549 rials (1,971 for fiscal 2025/26 plus 2,183 minus 605) puts the P/E at 7.0; the industry P/E is 6.9 (nightly reading of 28 October).

Drivers and risks

Prices and exports. In a Group A disclosure (tracing number 1606856, 30 September 2026) the company raised the per-unit price of dry yeast from 2,591,667 to 3,283,333 rials, up 26.7%, effective 3 October, citing higher cost of goods and raw material prices. The same filing says the product was 14% of revenue last year, so with volumes unchanged its simple effect is about 3.7% of revenue (14% x 26.7%; our calculation). The monthly activity report for the month to 22 October (tracing number 1618880) shows sales of 2,028 billion rials, 7.1% below the month to 22 September (2,181 billion; tracing number 1618214). Domestic sales rose 21% (881 to 1,067 billion rials) while exports fell 26% (1,300 to 961 billion rials). Because exports are 56% of seven-month sales, domestic sales have to make up for any continued drop.

Order flow. Over the five sessions from 24 to 28 October, individual investors sold a net 212 billion rials (about 21.2 billion tomans), the largest part, 117 billion rials, on 24 October (Sahmino's recorded exchange data). On 28 October individuals made 25% of the buying and 93% of the selling: they bought 337,000 shares and sold 1.28 million. The close fell from 28,330 rials on 21 October to 24,900, down 12.1%. Institutional trading in Iran is not necessarily "smart money" and part of it follows market-making duties and fund redemptions; we report only the direction of the flow.

Price. A P/E of 7.0 is not cheaper than the industry's 6.9. Value traded on 28 October was 34.2 billion rials, 0.3 times its twenty-session average. Sahmino's score is 54; among 57 industry peers it ranks at the 73rd percentile for profitability and the 21st for liquidity.

Outlook

Sahmino's desk has held a buy on RAVZ since the 28 October 2026 session: reference price 24,900 rials, target 28,903 and invalidation 24,697 rials over 15 sessions. The regime when it was filed was "falling, wild", and the stance is "counted", with no separately measured sample. The "flow turn" signal of 19 October behind it gives 69.7% (lower bound 63.8%) for reaching that target, against 55.7% for a random entry in the same regime; the sample size of that row is not recorded in the data. The signal's furthest entry level is 27,326 rials. The desk's overall record: of 2,476 settled stances, 1,141 (46.1%) reached target, 1,174 were invalidated and 161 expired; of 6,241 settled signals, 3,617 (58.0%) reached target, 2,470 were invalidated and 154 expired. Of the desk's four earlier buy calls on RAVZ in September, one reached target and three were invalidated.

The risk is in the numbers: the 24,900 close is only 0.8% above the invalidation level (base: the invalidation) and about 14% below the target (base: the target). The 28 October close itself was 2.4% lower than the session before, and a similar session would take it under 24,697. If each quarter of the second half earns what the second quarter did (1,074 rials per share; an arithmetic scenario, not a forecast), annual EPS would be 4,331 rials and the P/E at 24,900 rials would be 5.7.

Follow this call in Sahmino's ideas and signals, where target, invalidation and the filing session sit side by side. The RAVZ symbol page shows price and daily flow, and the view, invalidation and track record open after a free sign-up. The price change itself is in our report on the 27% increase.

Bottom line

Profit growth alone does not refute five sessions of selling: second-quarter profit trailed the first and October exports fell 26%. The 3.6x profit is backed by cash and a P/E of 7.0 is not cheaper than the industry's, so the opportunity depends on profit staying near the second-quarter level and exports returning. Sahmino desk, session of 28 October 2026: the RAVZ close stays above 24,697 rials for 15 sessions and reaches 28,903 rials, as long as the daily close does not fall below 24,697 rials. A daily close below 24,697 rials invalidates this reading.

What to watch

• Reopening on Saturday 31 October at 09:00: a daily close under 24,697 rials means invalidation; above 27,326 rials means the entry has passed by the signal's measure.
• The October-to-November monthly activity report: whether monthly sales return above 2,028 billion rials and what happens to the 56% export share.
• The nine-month statements: third-quarter gross margin against the second quarter's 42.9%, and operating cash flow of at least 90% of profit.
• Individual and institutional flow over the first three sessions of the week on the symbol page.