Jam Piln's Sales Volume Halved but Profit Rose 2.3-Fold: P/E 6.99 vs 9.29 for the Sector and a 398,591-Rial Sahmino Target (Tuesday 27 October 2026)

Jam Piln Petrochemical's standalone net profit for the six months ended 22 September 2026 reached 70,086,506 million rials, 2.3 times the 30,663,487 million rials of the same period a year earlier. The question is whether sales volume rose with it. The company's own monthly activity report says it did not: domestic units sold fell 48.7%, and revenue came from price, not volume. Even so, the close read at 17:34 on 27 October, a provisional 363,400 rials, is 6.99 times trailing twelve-month earnings, and the Sahmino desk has held a buy on the symbol since the 26 October session.

Background

Jam Piln trades on the second market (main board) of the Tehran Stock Exchange, sells polypropylene granules and powder, and has 2 billion shares; the exchange card (nightly reading of 25 October) puts free float at 11%. Every figure below comes from the unaudited standalone six-month statements: the amended filing, tracing number 1618867 (24 October), and the first version, tracing number 1595620 (21 October). The company says the amendment concerns the explanatory notes, and the income statement columns are identical in both versions. The prior-year column is restated and audited. The 17 May 2026 assembly also approved a cash dividend of 33,000 rials per share for fiscal 2025-26, 102.1% of earnings per share of 32,311 rials (tracing number 1525872); that is about 9.1% of today's provisional close.

The numbers

Amounts are printed in million rials; 1,000,000 million rials is one trillion rials, and one trillion tomans equals ten trillion rials.

• Revenue and margin: operating revenue 151,504,355 against 95,357,712 million rials (59% higher); the same 151,504,355 appears as the total of the monthly activity report to 22 September (tracing number 1614558). Cost of sales 74,718,826 against 69,221,944 (7.9% higher). Gross profit 76,785,529 against 26,135,768; gross margin 50.7% against 27.4%.
• Profit: operating profit 68,928,869 (25,193,145 a year earlier), which is 83% of pre-tax profit of 82,870,847. Net profit 70,086,506 (129% higher); earnings per share 35,043 against 15,332 rials, and 8.5% above the full fiscal year 2025-26 (32,311 rials). Rebuilt trailing earnings: 35,043 plus 32,311 minus 15,332 equals 52,022 rials; the exchange card shows 52,023, the difference being rounding.
• Volume and price in the monthly report: domestic units sold 59,789 against 116,432 (48.7% lower), and production 55,641 against 120,410 (53.8% lower). Revenue divided by units sold is 2.53 billion rials against 819 million rials per unit, 3.1 times (our calculation). The printed granule price, 2,535,962,707 against 845,306,042 rials, shows a 3.0-fold ratio.
• The latest month alone: 14,441 units sold and 39,266,023 million rials of revenue, which is 25.9% of the half-year's revenue. The average of the previous five months was 9,070 units and 22,447,666 million rials (112,238,332 divided by five), so volume was 1.6 times and revenue 1.75 times that average. The granule price for the month was 2,721,613,308 rials, 9.9% above the cumulative five-month price.
• Cash: net operating cash flow 46,169,952 against 40,466,525 million rials (14% higher), which is 66% of net profit; a year earlier it was 132%. Capital expenditure 6,484,326 against 927,551; the simple remainder is 39,685,626 million rials (our subtraction, not an official free cash flow).
• Balance sheet at 22 September: cash 14,760,427 and short-term investments 84,554,351, together 99,314,778 million rials, about 13.7% of a market value of 726.8 trillion rials at today's 17:34 reading. Trade receivables are 55% lower and inventory 43% higher than at 20 March 2026.

Drivers and risks

Mechanism. Revenue is price times volume. With units sold down nearly half and revenue up 59%, the gap was filled by a higher average selling price; that is an identity, and the statements do not say why the price rose. Cost of sales rose only 7.9%, so profit came from margin, not tonnage. Such profit lasts while price and margin hold; the latest month shows more units sold than the previous five-month average.

Three concerns. First, "other expenses" rose from 43,788 to 6,155,701 million rials, about 141 times; the income statement line carries no explanation and the detail sits in the notes. Second, operating cash is two-thirds of profit. Third, the flow: over the five sessions from 20 to 26 October retail investors net sold 505.7 billion rials (Sahmino's recorded data). On 24 October retail selling per capita was 2,521 million rials against 145 million rials per buyer; that ratio alone says nothing about sellers' motives. Today retail net sold about 18.3 billion rials (an estimate from volume times the close, read at 17:34). The provisional 363,400-rial close is 10.5% below the 52-week high (406,200 on 13 October; base: the high), and the 11% free float makes the stock sensitive to large moves.

Resilience today. On 27 October the Tehran Stock Exchange main index fell 1.77%; Jam Piln closed at a provisional 363,400 rials, 0.3% above the 362,300 of the 26 October session (read at 17:34; the exchange revises closes and volume until about 22:00). One session is not a trend.

Outlook

Valuation. The exchange card's trailing earnings per share is 52,023 rials and the sector price to earnings ratio is 9.29 (nightly reading of 25 October). At the 27 October provisional close of 363,400 rials Jam Piln is at 6.99, 24.8% below the sector (base: the sector multiple). Sahmino's own calculation at the 26 October close of 362,300 rials was 6.96. If the half-year's earnings per share repeated (our arithmetic scenario, not a forecast), annual earnings would be 70,086 rials and the multiple 5.2.

The desk's call. The Sahmino desk has held a buy on Jam Piln since the 26 October 2026 session: reference price 362,300 rials, target 398,591, invalidation 347,609 rials, horizon 15 sessions, in a market regime recorded as falling and volatile. The stance is "counted" and carries no separate probability or sample. The "flow turn" signal of 20 October behind it claims the same target with a 69.9% chance (lower bound 64.0%); a random entry in the same regime has a 55.7% chance of reaching it. Reward to risk from the 363,000-rial last trade at 17:34 is 2.31, and the entry limit of 379,473 rials has not been passed. The desk's overall record: of 2,042 settled stances, 917 (44.9%) reached target, 1,012 were invalidated and 113 expired; of 6,106 settled signals, 3,570 (58.5%) reached target, 2,388 were invalidated and 148 expired. The desk's five earlier buy stances on this symbol, from sessions between 12 and 20 September, all reached target (net return 1.9% to 8.0%), but five is a small sample.

Risk. The provisional close of 363,400 rials is 8.8% below the target (base: the target) and 4.5% above the invalidation (base: the invalidation). With a daily band of about 3%, two full falls in a row from today's close reach about 341,900 rials, below the invalidation (our approximate calculation).

Repeat the check in the Sahmino screener: industry Chemicals, price to earnings at most 0.85 times the sector's, annual profit growth at least 50% and return on equity at least 40%. On the 27 October reading, 16 of 2,112 symbols met these conditions and Jam Piln was one of them; the derived readings are rebuilt from filings the night before. Price, individual and institutional flow and the desk's call are on the Jam Piln symbol page. A similar profit-versus-cash test on another share is in the Mobarakeh Steel report.

Conclusion

Jam Piln's profit came from a higher average selling price, not volume: units sold fell 48.7% and revenue per unit rose 3.1-fold, while gross margin went from 27.4% to 50.7% and the latest month showed monthly volume recovering. Operating cash and retail selling are the real risks. The Sahmino desk: Jam Piln stays above 347,609 rials and reaches 398,591 rials; condition: as long as the daily close does not fall below 347,609 rials; horizon 15 sessions; invalidation: a daily close below 347,609 rials. Reading of 27 October 2026 (call of the 26 October session).

What to follow

• The monthly activity report to 22 October: compare units sold with the 14,441 of the previous month and the granule price with 2,721,613,308 rials.
• The notes on "other expenses" and the nine-month statements: whether the line repeats.
• Individual and institutional flow on the symbol page, and the daily close against 347,609 rials.
• Nine-month operating cash against profit, to test how durable the earnings quality is.