Pakshoo's six-month profit rises 3.5 times while operating cash turns negative; Sahmino targets 15,637 rials (October 22, 2026)

Pakshoo Industrial Group reported 4,003 billion tomans of standalone net profit for the six months ended September 22, 2026, up from 1,151 billion tomans a year earlier, or 3.5 times as much. Yet net cash from operating activities was negative 125 billion tomans in the same unaudited filing, published by Codal on October 22 under tracing number 1606921. Where did the profit go, and can a share that closed at 13,820 rials on October 21 still offer an entry after the filing? The Tehran market is closed on Thursday; its next session starts Saturday, October 24.

Background

Pakshoo, traded on the Tehran Stock Exchange's second board under PASH, makes detergents, shampoos, toothpaste and other household products. The company's reports present money in millions of rials; 10,000 million rials equal one billion tomans. Domestic sales accounted for 91% of 2025-26 financial-year revenue, the company said. In a September 30 material disclosure, tracing number 1605775, the company said the detergent-industry association had approved a rise in its average domestic selling price from 1,533,334 to 1,864,577 rials per unit, or 21.6%. The new rate took effect September 30, after the September 22 interim reporting date, so the filed six-month result cannot yet show its effect.

The numbers: profits are rising but cash is not

• Operating revenue: 24,369 billion tomans, or 243,694,879 million rials as printed in the standalone filing, against 9,410 billion tomans a year earlier, up 159%. The company's corrected September activity report, tracing number 1612314, prints the same six-month total.
• Gross and operating profit: Gross profit was 7,352 billion tomans against 2,547 billion, a calculated gross margin of 30.2% against 27.1%. Operating profit was 5,240 billion tomans against 1,765 billion, up 197%.
• Net profit: 4,003 billion tomans against 1,151 billion. Filed earnings per share rose from 144 to 500 rials. Multiplying 500 rials by 80 billion shares gives roughly 4,000 billion tomans, consistent with the separately rounded filed net-profit figure.
• Cash: Cash generated from operations before cash taxes was positive 13 billion tomans; tax payments of 138 billion tomans, versus about one billion a year earlier, brought net operating cash to negative 125 billion tomans, versus positive 92 billion a year earlier. Dividends received on investments were 1,017 billion tomans, versus 146 billion, helping turn cash flow before financing positive at 606 billion.

The mechanism matters: revenue and accounting profit can be recognized before customers pay. Between March 20 and September 22, 2026, trade and other receivables rose by 4,395 billion tomans (29%), prepayments and orders by 2,228 billion (147%), and inventory by 1,611 billion (32%). Their combined increase of 8,234 billion tomans is about twice the six-month profit, though changes in those three balances alone cannot be equated with the operating cash-flow line. Trade payables rose by 2,168 billion tomans and customer advances by 1,142 billion, from 290 billion to 1,432 billion tomans, offsetting some of the cash tied up in working capital.

Catalysts and counter-evidence

Subtracting the June 21, 2026, first-quarter standalone filing, tracing number 1570214, from the September 22 six-month report yields calculated summer-quarter revenue of 14,716 billion tomans, up 52% from the spring quarter's 9,654 billion. Net profit rose to 2,599 billion from 1,404 billion, an 85% sequential gain. But gross margin fell from a calculated 33.5% in spring to 28.0% in summer. Higher sales have not fully protected profitability from costs.

A second test is liquidity. Dividends payable at September 22 stood at 4,855 billion tomans, compared with cash of 1,072 billion. Shareholders approved a 600-rial dividend per share at the July 21 annual meeting. Interest-bearing loans were 6,649 billion tomans at September 22, and six-month operating profit covered the 761 billion tomans of finance charges about 6.9 times. The current operating cash flow does not itself fund the dividend payment. Lotus Parsian disclosed on October 21 that it would underwrite part of another Pakshoo murabaha bond and make a market in the entire issue.

Price is the third test. PASH's October 21 close was 10.6% below the October 14 one-year traded high of 15,450 rials. The exchange card put the free float at 10% in its October 22 reading; Sahmino's 20-session data as rebuilt that day showed about 43 billion tomans of net individual selling. On October 18, 57.8 million shares changed hands and retail investors sold a net 50 billion tomans. These flows do not establish what the price must do next.

On the constructive side, the corrected monthly report showed September sales of 6,539 billion tomans, roughly 1.8 times the prior five-month monthly average of 3,566 billion. The 21.6% permitted average domestic rate rise only took effect after that month. The company corrected the September report on October 22: the month's sales were about 0.03% below the original version, not a material reversal of the six-month trend.

Outlook and valuation

The exchange's earnings multiple was about 12.7 on the October 21 close of 13,820 rials, using an estimated 1,090 rials in earnings per share; the chemical-sector multiple on the October 22 card was 10. Sahmino's separately reconstructed trailing-year earnings per share was about 1,285 rials, producing a multiple of 10.8 using that same October 21 close. This trailing year is a calculation: audited annual profit for the year to March 20, 2026, plus the current six months, less the year-earlier six months. It is not a column printed in the September report. Annualizing the estimated 325-rial summer-quarter earnings per share would instead give a multiple near 10.6, a stress test rather than an earnings forecast. PASH is not cheaper than its sector on the exchange's current earnings basis; its prospective attraction depends on repeatable quarterly profit and the later effect of higher rates.

Sahmino's October 21 session stance on PASH was buy from a 13,820-rial reference, with a 15,637-rial target, a 13,543-rial invalidation threshold and a 15-session horizon. This counted stance has no separately measured sample or probability. A flow-turn signal initiated October 12 has the same target with an estimated 74% hit rate and a 67.6% lower bound; it supplies no matched random-entry control, so that signal rate is not proof of an edge. Across 2,042 settled Sahmino stances at the October 22 rebuild, 917 reached their targets (44.9%), 1,012 were invalidated and 113 expired. Relative to the target itself, the October 21 close was 11.6% below it; relative to invalidation, it was 2.0% above it.

To compare the opportunity yourself, run this filter in Sahmino's screener: chemicals industry, annual revenue growth above 30% and a trailing earnings multiple below 12. The nightly pass of October 22 returned 37 chemicals-industry matches, and PASH, with 159% revenue growth and a 10.8 multiple, ranks fourth by revenue growth; a below-12 filter alone also admits negative multiples, so read the list with the growth column. See also the PASH instrument page for the dated reading, the rate-change disclosure summary, and the earlier FSAZ valuation example.

Bottom line

Pakshoo's profit growth is real on the unaudited filing, but taxes paid and rising working-capital balances coincide with operating cash outflow; the report does not prove a single exclusive cause for that outflow. Sahmino's reading: PASH can move from 13,820 toward 15,637 rials over 15 sessions provided its daily close does not fall below 13,543 rials; a close below 13,543 invalidates it. The reading is dated to the October 21 session.

What to follow

The first October 24 trading session after the new filing, receivables against sales in the next results, and whether third-quarter operating cash turns positive. The October monthly sales release has no confirmed official publication date: the two earlier releases came out around the 7th of the Iranian month, which would put it near October 29, and it should test whether the September 6,539 billion toman sales run rate holds after the permitted increase. Sahmino's dividend calendar tracks the announced payment windows through November 16.