Shomal Cement's sales in the month to 22 October more than doubled from a year earlier, while its shares still sit below last month's peak (Sunday 15 November 2026)

Shomal Cement (SIMS) sold more than twice as much in the Iranian month of Mehr 1405 (23 September to 22 October 2026) as in the same month a year earlier, yet its share price has fallen from its late-October peak. The company's monthly activity report on Codal (tracing number 1620977, published 28 October) puts Mehr sales at 3,422,884 million rials, while the share closed at 21,630 rials on 14 November, 15.6 percent below the 25,640-rial close of 20 October. This report asks where that gap comes from and whether there is an opportunity behind it.

Background

Shomal Cement sells type 2 grey cement in bulk and in bags, and its fiscal year closes on 21 December (30 Azar), so Mehr is the tenth month of its fiscal 1405. The nine-month statements to 22 September 2026 (unaudited, tracing number 1612086, the company's standalone statements) show operating revenue of 19,932,858 million rials and net profit of 7,182,634 million rials, up 71 and 60 percent from the same nine months of 1404. The same nine-month revenue appears, to the rial, as 19,932,858 million in the cumulative columns of the September and October monthly reports.

At an extraordinary meeting on 11 January 2026 the company raised its capital from 1,700 to 5,000 billion rials (194 percent), 3,000 billion of it from cash contributions and 300 billion from retained earnings; the registration notice appeared on Codal on 24 October 2026. That is why the nine-month earnings per share of 4,225 rials in the statements is struck on 1.7 billion shares, while the same profit is now shared among 5 billion. We explained how a cash raise differs from bonus shares in an earlier report on a dividend and a capital increase.

The numbers

• Mehr 1405 sales: 3,422,884 million rials, against 1,670,364 million in Mehr 1404 (the difference between the 22 October and 22 September 2025 cumulative columns of the monthly reports), so 2.05 times, or 104.9 percent more. Mehr sales were also 13.2 percent above Shahrivar's (the month to 22 September), 3,023,185 million rials.
• Bulk cement rate per tonne: 35,487,649 rials in Mehr 1405, against about 20,875,000 rials in Mehr 1404 (1,272,834 million rials over 60,973 tonnes), 70 percent more. The Mehr bulk rate was 8.2 percent above Shahrivar's (32,783,827 rials) and 32.6 percent above the nine-month average (26,756,520 rials).
• Volume: 89,275 tonnes in Mehr 1405 against 78,551 tonnes in Mehr 1404, 13.7 percent more. Most of the sales growth therefore came from the rate, not the tonnage.
• Ten months: cumulative sales to 22 October were 23,355,742 million rials, 75.5 percent above the 13,307,275 million of a year earlier. Mehr alone was 17.2 percent of nine-month revenue and 54.5 percent above its monthly average.
• Cash and debt: nine-month cash from operations after tax was 7,897,793 million rials, 110 percent of net profit for the same period. Finance costs in the income statement are zero and the balance sheet carries no interest-bearing debt.
• Price and multiples: 14 November close 21,630 rials; the year's highest close was 25,640 rials on 20 October and the highest trade 26,380 rials on 21 October. On trailing twelve-month net profit of 12,778 billion rials (nine months of 1405 plus fiscal 1404 minus nine months of 1404) and 5 billion shares, trailing earnings per share are 2,556 rials and Sahmino's price-to-earnings ratio is 8.46 on that close; the cement group's ratio on the exchange's card on the same date was 8.65. The 15 November closing price read 21,990 rials as of 17:32.

Drivers

A cement maker's revenue is rate times tonnes. In Mehr 1405 Shomal Cement sold about a seventh more tonnes than a year earlier, but its bulk rate rose 70 percent, so the main driver of growth is the selling rate, and cement sells a large share of its supply through the Iran Mercantile Exchange, which discovers that rate competitively. The same mechanism lifted the price of a bag of Tehran cement over the summer (our 7 August report).

The other side is the order book. From 26 October to 14 November, individual investors were net sellers of SIMS in 12 of 14 sessions while institutions bought; the largest individual outflow, on 31 October, was about 243 billion rials. The net individual flow over twenty sessions is minus 760 billion rials. The fall from the peak coincided with this run of selling, not with a weak report. On 14 November an auction of 282,506,566 shares of Simane Gharb (5 percent), offered at a 25 percent premium to the board price, also drew no buyer (group B disclosure, tracing number 1635333); those shares remain among the company's assets and the auction has no bearing on its cement sales.

Outlook

Three cautions are serious. First, the price-to-earnings ratio of 8.46 is level with the group, so on past profit the share is not cheap; the opportunity only means something if the Mehr rate holds through Aban and Azar (22 October to 21 December). Second, the cash raise multiplied the share count by 2.94, and the new money still has to show up in profit. Third, the flow signal behind the call gives an 81.7 percent chance of reaching its target, but its lower bound is 64 percent and a random entry in the same market regime reached the same target 69.5 percent of the time; its edge over a random entry is not certain.

Sahmino's desk has held a buy on Shomal Cement since the 14 November 2026 session, with a 23,929-rial target and a 21,472-rial invalidation over 15 sessions; this kind of call reached its target 116 times in a sample of 161. The desk's whole stance record to date is 1,571 targets reached in 3,516 settled stances. The target is 10.6 percent above the 14 November close, and the 15 November closing price (read at 17:32) sits 2.4 percent above the invalidation.

Conclusion

Shomal Cement's share price has not yet followed its Mehr sales: a selling rate 70 percent above a year earlier, no bank debt and operating cash above profit, against a price held 15.6 percent below its peak by persistent individual selling. Sahmino's reading: Shomal Cement has room to the desk's 23,929-rial target, provided it closes above 21,472 rials and Aban sales stay close to Mehr's, over 15 sessions from 14 November; a close below 21,472 rials invalidates this reading.

What to watch

• The Aban monthly activity report on Codal: does the bulk rate stay near 35.5 million rials a tonne?
• Individual flow on Sahmino's Shomal Cement page, where the call's target and invalidation are followed beside the board.
• The next round of the Simane Gharb share auction and the annual statements to 21 December 2026.