Turkish Lira Hits Fresh Record Low of 47.76 Against the Dollar on Wednesday; Turkey's Central Bank Releases Its Quarterly Inflation Report Tomorrow

The Turkish lira touched a fresh all-time low against the US dollar on Wednesday evening, August 12, 2026, with the exchange rate crossing 47.75 lira per dollar. The record came one day before the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) releases its quarterly Inflation Report, due tomorrow, Thursday, August 13, a release that has traditionally been one of the most influential events on the calendar for the lira. Notably, the record was set even as Turkey's annual inflation has eased for a fourth straight month.

Background

The lira's slide is not new. Per Sahmino's earlier coverage, the dollar/lira rate crossed 45.5 in mid May and kept climbing: it reached about 46.86 on July 9, crossed 47.2 on July 21, and has now passed 47.75 on August 12. According to Trading Economics data, the lira has weakened 1.6% over the past month and 17.2% over the past year against the dollar.

The numbers

On Wednesday evening, August 12, 2026 (5:29 PM Tehran time), Sahmino's own price feed recorded the dollar at 47.7553 lira. Around the same time, Trading Economics put the rate at 47.7576 lira (noting an all time high of 47.77), and XE.com put the mid market rate at 47.7515 lira (a seven day high of 47.7960); all three independent sources confirm the fresh record.

On inflation, Turkey's Statistical Institute (TUIK) reported annual inflation eased to 31.75% in July, down from 32.11% in June and the lowest reading since March. This figure is confirmed both by Trading Economics and by Sahmino's own earlier report (published August 12). Even so, the TCMB held its policy rate at 37% for a fourth straight meeting at its late July session (July 23).

On trade, Turkey's Trade Minister announced on August 3 (Mordad 12) that July exports hit a record $25.6 billion, up 2.9% year on year, but June's trade deficit had reached $10.37 billion, nearly double the prior month's gap.

Drivers

Three factors sit behind the record. First, the TCMB suspended cheap repo funding back in March, pushing banks toward its costlier 40% overnight rate; economists say this leaves little room for rate cuts before year end. Second, despite record exports, faster-growing imports have nearly doubled the trade deficit, keeping dollar demand elevated. Third, Turkey's reliance on energy imports leaves it exposed to energy-price swings tied to West Asia tensions, a risk premium Sahmino has repeatedly covered around the Strait of Hormuz.

The Iran connection

Turkey is one of Iran's main overland trade and tourism corridors. Sahmino previously reported that container shipping costs from China to Iran have risen up to fourfold (from roughly $3,000 to $12,000) due to maritime route disruptions; against that backdrop, a weaker lira makes Turkish-origin goods (clothing, appliances, parts) cheaper in dollar terms for Iranian importers who buy via overland routes. Meanwhile, Iranians traveling to Turkey for tourism, medical care, or property purchases get more lira per dollar or euro; but that same currency weakness keeps Turkey's own domestic costs under the shadow of inflation above 30%.

Outlook

Trading Economics' macro models (based on analyst estimates, not official data) project the lira trading around 47.64 by the end of this quarter and around 47.33 in 12 months, a slight pullback from today's record rather than a further slide. The same models see inflation around 31.3% by quarter end, and trending toward roughly 25% in 2027 and 20% in 2028. These figures are estimates only and should not be mistaken for official data.

Bottom line

Despite four straight months of easing inflation, the Turkish lira hit a fresh record low against the dollar on Wednesday, as a widening trade deficit and little room to cut the 37% policy rate keep pressure on the currency. Tomorrow's TCMB quarterly report is the first official test of whether policymakers still see disinflation on track or are flagging new risks, and either outcome could move the lira in the days ahead.

What to watch

Three things to watch over the next 24 hours: the TCMB Governor's press briefing tomorrow, Thursday, August 13; any revision to the year end inflation forecast; and the lira's immediate reaction to the report's content.

Sources: Sahmino's live USD/TRY price page, the lira's previous record (July), the TCMB's rate decision, the TCMB Inflation Report event on Sahmino's calendar, and Sahmino's lessons on the Turkish lira.