US 60-Day Oil Waiver for Iran: Up to $3.06 Billion in Possible FX Revenue Through August 21, 2026

On Monday, June 22, 2026 (1 Tir 1405), the US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued General License X, authorizing the sale of Iranian-origin crude oil, petrochemical products and petroleum products for US dollars, the first time such dollar-denominated Iranian oil trade has been permitted in more than four decades. The license runs through August 21, 2026 (30 Mordad 1405), per CNBC and law firm Greenberg Traurig (June 22 and 23, 2026). Per an analysis by Newsweek, if Iran exports at full capacity over the 60-day window, the waiver could generate an estimated $2.24 billion to $3.06 billion in revenue.

Background

The waiver came five days after the United States and Iran signed the 14-point "Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding" on June 17, 2026 (27 Khordad 1405), when the two countries' presidents set a 60-day framework for continued negotiations, a phased withdrawal of the US naval presence from the region within 30 days, and free, fee-free transit for commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days (per CNN and NPR, June 17 to 18, 2026). Under the memorandum's text, the US committed to making Iran's blocked or restricted funds "fully usable" for payment to any beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of Iran, opening a direct settlement channel for oil revenue into the central bank, bypassing the informal intermediary networks used since sanctions were reimposed.

Key Figures

Sources for the oil waiver figures: CNBC, Newsweek, Greenberg Traurig and Holland & Knight (June 22 and 23, 2026). The reserves figure was previously reported in Sahmino's own Market Pulse coverage, sourced to Eco Iran.

Drivers

Per CNBC, the waiver marks the first time in over four decades that Iranian oil transactions have been formally permitted in US dollars; prior to it, Iran's oil exports moved largely through informal networks at discounted prices. Per law firm Buchanan Ingersoll & Rooney, General License X authorizes transactions "ordinarily incident and necessary" to the production, sale, delivery and offloading of Iranian-origin crude oil, petrochemical products and petroleum products. Separately, Central Bank of Iran Governor Abdolnasser Hemmati, without directly referencing the waiver, reported a roughly $4.5 billion increase in the country's FX reserves in the recent period (per Eco Iran, July 2026). Sahmino currently has no independent source establishing a direct link between the two developments.

Outlook

Per Newsweek's analysis, if the ceasefire holds and Iran's oil exports reach full capacity, the waiver could provide a fresh source of FX supply for Iran's economy; however, General License X is temporary, and any extension depends on mutual agreement within the final negotiations, which are due to conclude by August 21, 2026 (30 Mordad 1405). This is a summary of published analysis, not a definitive Sahmino forecast.

What to Watch

In the coming weeks, watch for whether General License X is extended or allowed to expire around August 21, 2026, any official central bank statement on oil revenue flowing into FX reserves, the progress of final US-Iran negotiations, and how the free-market dollar rate responds to any material change in FX supply.

Disclaimer

This report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All figures carry a specific as-of date and may have changed since publication; verify information with official, current sources before making any financial decision.