US Treasury yields fall after soft inflation data; dollar index drops and July rate-hike odds recede

US Treasury yields fell on Tuesday, July 14, 2026, after June inflation came in softer than expected. The 10-year yield dropped to about 4.55 percent and the policy-sensitive 2-year yield fell to roughly 4.1 percent, its biggest one-day decline since February.

The dollar index slipped about 0.6 percent to around 100.7. With inflation pressure easing, market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at this month's meeting fell to about 20 percent, down from more than 40 percent a day earlier, though traders still see a roughly 63 percent chance of a hike in September. Lower yields and a weaker dollar are generally read as supportive for gold and emerging markets.