Fed's June Minutes Reveal 9-to-8 Split Over a 2026 Rate Hike as Inflation Outlook Rises

Minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's June 16-17, 2026 policy meeting, released Wednesday, July 8, 2026, showed that while officials unanimously held the benchmark rate at 3.50 to 3.75 percent, they were split on the 2026 rate path in the dot plot: eight participants favored no change, one favored a cut, and nine favored at least one hike this year. According to CNBC, Fed officials also raised their 2026 inflation projections from 2.7 percent at the March update to 3.6 percent headline and 3.3 percent core, cited as driven largely by trade tariffs and the escalating Iran conflict.