The Federal Reserve meets Tuesday and Wednesday; markets expect a hold but hike odds have risen

The US Federal Open Market Committee meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, 28 and 29 July 2026 (6 and 7 Mordad 1405), with the interest-rate decision due Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern Time. Markets broadly expect the policy rate to be held in the 3.5 to 3.75 percent range, a fifth consecutive meeting without a change.

According to Forbes on 23 July 2026, the jump in oil prices above $100 a barrel has pushed market-implied odds of a rate increase before the end of 2026 to about 38 percent, up from roughly 12 percent a week earlier. Against that, US June inflation data came in below forecasts and labour-market figures were softer than expected.

The path of US interest rates matters for Iran's market through two channels: its effect on the dollar index and on the global gold price, both of which feed into domestic coin and currency prices.