JPMorgan pushes back its Turkiye rate-cut call: two 100 basis point cuts moved to October and December

JPMorgan said on Saturday, 25 July 2026 (3 Mordad 1405) that it has pushed back its expectations for interest rate cuts by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkiye (CBRT). The investment bank moved the two 100 basis point cuts it had previously expected at the September and October meetings to the October and December meetings, citing renewed military tensions in West Asia and oil prices approaching $100 a barrel.

According to JPMorgan, the CBRT's effective funding cost is likely to stay at 40% until the geopolitical crisis eases, delaying the normalisation of its operational funding framework. The bank expects the CBRT to first restart one-week repo auctions in September, bringing the effective funding cost down from 40% to the 37% policy rate.

JPMorgan kept its year-end policy rate forecast unchanged at 35%, but warned that the balance of risks had shifted toward fewer cuts. Following the CBRT's hawkish decision, market pricing pointed to a policy rate of about 36.6% at end-2026 and 34% at end-2027, the bank said. The CBRT held its policy rate at 37% for a fourth consecutive meeting last week.