Fed September Rate-Hike Odds Jump to 68.8% as Iran War Reignites Inflation Fears

Per Forbes (July 8, 2026), after US strikes on Iran resumed and Trump declared the ceasefire "over," the market implied probability of a Fed rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting, per CME Group's FedWatch tool, jumped from 62% on Tuesday, July 7, to 68.8% on Wednesday, July 8. The odds of a hike by the December meeting reached 85.3%. The jump came after Trump told the NATO summit in Ankara he believed the ceasefire with Iran was over and that the US would likely strike again that night. Analysts attribute the rise in rate hike odds to inflation concerns from surging oil prices, which could strengthen the dollar and pressure emerging markets, including Iran's.