Fed September Rate Hike Odds Jump to 58 Percent as Two Year Treasury Yield Hits 4.34 Percent

According to Khabaronline, published Saturday, 7 Shahrivar 1405 (August 29, 2026), data from CME FedWatch reported by Reuters showed the probability of a September Federal Reserve rate hike jumped from about 36 percent to 58 percent after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium, while the odds of a December hike rose to about 89 percent. Warsh said in the speech that the Fed still faces a monetary policy challenge until inflation moves convincingly toward its 2 percent target.

At the same time, the US two year Treasury yield rose to 4.34 percent, a figure separately confirmed the same day by Tgju.org, which also reported the 10 year yield at 4.73 percent. The Wall Street Journal said the combination drove gold's biggest weekly drop since the week ending 15 Khordad (early June), since rising yields and a stronger dollar typically reduce the metal's appeal to investors.