The Fed decides Wednesday: markets expect a hold, but the odds of a hike have climbed toward 40 percent

The US Federal Open Market Committee announces its interest rate decision on Wednesday, 29 July 2026 (7 Mordad 1405) at 2 p.m. US Eastern time (about 21:30 Tehran time). Most economists expect the rate to be left unchanged in a target range of 3.50 percent to 3.75 percent. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, as of Friday, 24 July, 62 percent of market participants expected a hold, with the remainder pricing a hike to the 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent range; the odds of a quarter point increase had reached close to 40 percent that day.

June data supported a hold: the US consumer price index rose 3.5 percent from a year earlier in June, below expectations and down from a 4.2 percent increase in May, while job growth was also tamer than estimated. Against that, analysts point to resumed military hostilities in West Asia, increasing tariffs and the artificial intelligence buildout as upside risks to inflation. Fed governor Christopher Waller said this month that the central bank may need to raise rates "in the near term" if coming data shows inflation still well above the 2 percent target.

This is the second meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh as Fed chair. Analysts have cautioned that, as at the previous meeting, he is likely to offer little explanation beyond the text of the statement and no forward guidance. For Iran's market, the Fed's direction matters through the value of the dollar globally and the price of an ounce of gold.